Bitcoin retesting $125,000? ETFs draw $445m as Fed cut looms

The Federal Reserve will drive Bitcoin’s price to $125,000.

That’s according to Robin Singh, CEO of crypto accounting platform Koinly, who told DL News that the flagship cryptocurrency will retest the all-time high price level if the central bank cuts interest rates at its October 29 meeting.

The meeting will reinforce “consensus of a continued shift toward looser monetary policy, which typically benefits Bitcoin,” Singh said.

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 97% chance of a 0.25% cut in interest rates later this month. Data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket backs that sentiment up, showing a 98% chance of a cut.

Lower interest rates usually drive cryptocurrency prices as they incentivise investors to bet on risk-on assets.

The optimism comes as the total market has gained 8% of its value since $19 billion in positions were liquidated on October and is back over $4 trillion.

Bitcoin is trading above $115,000, buoyed by a wave of institutional demand that drove exchange-traded fund inflows past the $445 million mark last week, according to SoSoValue.

And others in the market agree that the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive for risk assets.

“My playbook: stay bullish on BTC into an easing cycle, but keep it nimble around headlines. Pullbacks happen; the trend is up,” Kyle Chassé, founder of venture capital firm MV Global, told DL News.

Chassé added that ETFs are “the steady bid pulling coins off the market.”

To be sure, the market isn’t at full throttle yet, David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, told DL News.

“Traders are taking incremental exposure, not betting on a straight run,” Siemer said. “If we see follow-through with clear signs of rate cuts and sustained inflows into digital assets, then we could look at a meaningful move upward heading into year-end.”

Still, others are urging caution.

Nic Puckrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau, told DL News that “if the government shutdown continues into November, this would weigh on sentiment.”

“The all-important crypto market structure bill will be delayed further, as will altcoin ETF approvals,” Puckrin stressed.

“The closer we get to Thanksgiving, the less time there is to get legislation approved before the holiday season begins.”