As the New York mayoral race nears its conclusion, Polymarket made a strange announcement about Zohran Mamdani. It claimed that his odds of success were collapsing, giving Andrew Cuomo a shot at victory.
Zohran’s chances remain overwhelmingly likely, leaving the community confused about the statement. Either Polymarket is trying to juice fresh bets on the mayoral race, or it aims to influence the underlying election directly.
Polymarket Derides Zohran
Polymarket, the largest prediction market, has been offering bets on elections of all shapes and sizes. This hasn’t been its most lucrative category, but these bets have occasionally offered valuable data about world events.
However, Polymarket made a bizarre statement about the New York mayoral race today, straining its credibility:
Specifically, Polymarket predicted that Zohran Mamdani’s odds of victory were collapsing, giving Andrew Cuomo a shot at victory.
The platform’s community and outside observers were both bewildered; Zohran’s odds remain above 90% on the platform. Even if today’s single-digit dip continued, he’d still be in a position to win comfortably.
Two Possible Scenarios
Still, this post went viral, so the community has wondered why Polymarket made it. In essence, there are two competing theories.
On one hand, Polymarket bets on the mayoral race have increased by over $4 million in the last few hours. In this way, the platform could’ve spread these rumors to juice its own profits and trading volumes.
Polymarket Odds on the New York City Mayoral Election. Source: Polymarket
However, there is an alternate possibility. Since the DOJ ended its probe into Polymarket, the Trump family has invested heavily in it, and the firm has enjoyed more regulatory breakthroughs since.
Trump has repeatedly commented on his strong dislike for Zohran, so Polymarket may be trying to influence the election’s result.
Of course, the company has its own reasons to dislike Mamdani. He might be somewhat hostile to the crypto industry, especially to its political connections, whereas other candidates have taken a pro-Web3 stance.
Polymarket may envision trouble for itself if Zohran wins, and is hoping to avoid such an outcome.
Either way, neither scenario is particularly flattering. Although some analysts treat Polymarket odds as a barometer for market sentiment, it’s important to remember that the platform isn’t a neutral actor.
The firm already stands accused of enabling Trump-linked insider trading, and it may be trying to directly interfere in politics itself.
