Starbucks Stock: Q4 Stabilizes Traffic, Profit Takes a Hit

Markets 2025-10-30 04:48

Starbucks Stock: Q4 Stabilizes Traffic, Profit Takes a Hit

Seattle-based Starbucks reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended September 28, 2025, showing the first uptick in global comparable sales in seven quarters even as heavy restructuring charges pressured margins and earnings.

Quarterly revenue rose 5% to $9.6 billion. GAAP earnings per share fell to $0.12, with non-GAAP EPS at $0.52.

Management said its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround is gaining traction. Global comparable sales increased 1% in Q4, driven by a 1% rise in transactions. U.S. comps were flat, with September turning positive, while International comps rose 3%. China comps advanced 2% as transactions jumped 9% and average ticket declined 7%.

Margins Compressed by Closures and Inflation

The company closed 627 coffeehouses in the quarter as part of a portfolio reset—over 90% in North America—contributing to a 1,150-basis-point contraction in GAAP operating margin to 2.9%. Non-GAAP operating margin fell 500 bps to 9.4%. Starbucks cited restructuring costs, inflation, higher labor hours tied to the turnaround plan, and deleverage.

Segment Performance: North America Flat, International Warmer

North America revenue grew 3% to $6.9 billion, but operating margin slid to 4.5% from 18.7% a year ago amid restructuring and cost pressures. International revenue rose 9% to $2.07 billion, with comps up 3% on stronger traffic; operating margin declined to 10.8% from 14.9%, reflecting closure costs and increased promotional activity. Channel Development revenue climbed 17% to $543 million; operating margin remained high at 48.9% but eased from 56.9% on mix and JV income.

Store Footprint and Mix

Starbucks ended the quarter with 40,990 stores after 107 net closures, reflecting the restructuring. The U.S. and China make up 61% of the global base, with 16,864 and 8,011 stores, respectively. Despite the closures, International added net new company-operated stores over the past year and continued to expand licensed locations.

Full-Year Picture: Revenue Up, Earnings Down

For fiscal 2025, revenue increased 3% to $37.2 billion. GAAP operating margin fell to 7.9% and non-GAAP to 9.9%. GAAP EPS declined 51% to $1.63; non-GAAP EPS decreased 36% to $2.13. Management reiterated that the turnaround is a multi-year effort focused on rebuilding traffic, simplifying operations, and managing costs.

Cash Returns and Corporate Updates

The board declared a $0.62 per-share dividend payable November 28, marking 62 consecutive quarterly payouts. Starbucks named Pilar Ramos as chief legal officer, opened a flagship store inside Real Madrid’s Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, and became the official coffee partner of the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USA.

Stock Price

Starbucks stock fell 1.47% on Tuesday to close at $84.17 but rebounded in after-hours trading, rising 1.82% to $85.70 following the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results. The recovery came as investors reacted positively to signs of improving global sales and management’s confidence in the “Back to Starbucks” turnaround plan.

Starbucks Stock: Q4 Stabilizes Traffic, Profit Takes a Hit

On the technical side, the RSI is holding near neutral levels around 46 after easing from the overbought zone, signaling cooling momentum but no clear bearish reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD lines remain close to converging, suggesting the stock may continue trading sideways between $83 and $86 until stronger buying pressure or a breakout catalyst emerges.

What to Watch Next

Investors will track whether flat U.S. comps can turn sustainably positive, how quickly China ticket stabilizes as traffic recovers, and the pace of margin rebuild as restructuring winds down and labor and inflation pressures ebb. Management hosts its results call today at 1:15 p.m. Pacific Time.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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