BTC fell under $107,000, losing several tiers in the past day. The crypto market liquidations once again moved close to $1B.
BTC broke down under $107,000 on Thursday, extending the weakness from the past few days. BTC slid to $106,993, later recovering above $107,300. The recent price moves led to $377.14M in liquidations for the past day.
The crypto market as a whole saw $963.63M in total liquidations, with over $855M liquidated longs. BTC still has some positions to be liquidated as low as $105,000, but the price drop has swept most of the easily available long positions.
During the latest round of liquidations, Hyperliquid remained the main venue, surpassing the liquidation levels on Binance derivative markets. The volatility on derivative markets followed a recent attempt to revive spot trading as a less risky option.
As with other rapid BTC slides, other assets reacted even more strongly. ETH dipped to $3,725.25. BTC remains dominant, taking up 57.9% of the market. BTC deepened its loss for October to 5.79%, despite the expectations for a green month and an ‘Uptober’ trend. SOL stopped its recent recovery and returned to $180.23.
BTC short-term sentiment points to reversal
BTC is still affected by the October 10-11 liquidations, which were followed by additional rounds of retail selling. Short-term holder profitability is sliding for wallets aged up to 155 days. As BTC held near record levels for weeks, recent buyers are out of the money.
While BTC moved away from its records, additional retail selling may put more pressure on the price. The current price dip is seen as potentially triggering a bigger price correction before a new recovery cycle. For now, BTC has not recovered its liquidity from before the October 10-11 liquidation, and traders are more cautious in rebuilding positions.
The BTC supply in profit has fallen to 82%, down from 99% in early October. BTC has also crossed to a level that may trigger more panic-selling. The recent slide has set expectations for moving to levels under $100,000.
Is BTC going through short-term turbulence?
The recent BTC dip may be a matter of ‘selling the news’ following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 25bps. BTC has historically dipped following FOMC decisions, followed by a relief rally. Soon after the price slide, BTC spot markets formed a buy wall, which absorbed the selling in the $106,000 range.
One of the signs of a potential recovery is the rapidly worsening retail sentiment. For BTC, pessimistic retail positions and postings on ‘buying the dip’ often translate into relief rallies. Often, smart money and whales move the price opposite to retail.
The recent price moves lowered the crypto fear and greed index to 34 points, in ‘fear’ territory, after an earlier dip as low as 24 points.
Predictions for BTC range from a relief rally to a continued correction. Ending October in the red has been followed historically by an even larger dip in November.
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