Hedera (HBAR) has recorded an impressive 26% weekly gain, sparking optimism among traders and investors. The sudden surge has lifted market sentiment and added momentum to portfolios holding the altcoin.
However, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest that the rally might not be as organic as it appears, raising questions about its sustainability in the days ahead.
Hedera Investors Need To Step Up
The weighted sentiment for HBAR has seen a sharp spike in recent days, reflecting rising investor optimism. This increase in positive sentiment coincides with the launch of Canary Capital’s spot HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF), which began trading earlier this week.
The ETF’s debut has significantly amplified social discussions around the token, fueling bullish expectations in the short term. However, history suggests that sudden spikes in investor enthusiasm can be double-edged.
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HBAR Weighted Sentiment. Source: Santiment
From a macro perspective, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator paints a more cautious picture. Despite the price rally, CMF data shows no corresponding surge in inflows, suggesting that the bullish momentum is not backed by substantial capital movement.
Low inflows paired with heightened network activity often indicate an overheated asset. This imbalance tends to precede short-term reversals as traders take profits and market liquidity tightens. Unless new capital enters the market soon, HBAR’s upward trend could struggle to maintain its current pace.
HBAR CMF. Source: TradingView
HBAR Price Reclaims $0.200
At the time of writing, HBAR trades at $0.2048 after a 26% rise this week, testing resistance near $0.212. The strong uptrend positions the token just below a key breakout zone that could determine its next direction.
If investors begin taking profits without a fresh wave of inflows, HBAR could lose support at $0.200 and decline toward $0.178. Such a move would reflect cooling momentum and renewed caution among traders.
HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
Alternatively, if the rally gains support from increased inflows driven by the spot ETF, HBAR could extend its rise past $0.217 and aim for $0.23. Sustaining this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and renewed investor confidence.
