Ethereum (ETH) is struggling to break above the $4,000 mark and regain a clear bullish structure, with price action tightening after several failed attempts to reclaim momentum. The market remains cautious following recent volatility, and traders are watching closely to determine whether ETH will resume its uptrend or continue drifting lower. Analysts are currently split: some argue Ethereum’s fundamentals remain strong, fueled by network activity, scaling advancements, and institutional traction, while others point to increasing downside pressure and weakening market structure that could lead to a deeper pullback.

Despite the uncertainty in price, fresh on-chain data signals growing confidence among long-term participants. According to Santiment, more than 200,000 ETH — worth approximately $780 million — have been withdrawn from exchanges over the past 48 hours, marking one of the largest short-term outflow spikes this quarter. Such activity typically suggests accumulation, as investors move assets into self-custody rather than keeping them on exchanges to sell.

This divergence between price hesitation and heavy accumulation reinforces the current market debate. With liquidity dynamics shifting, Ethereum sits at a pivotal moment, and its ability to reclaim $4,000 will likely determine whether bullish momentum re-emerges heading into November.

Large ETH Withdrawals Signal Investor Conviction As Market Shifts Toward Risk-On Environment

The recent wave of large Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges further reinforces a growing theme in the market: investor conviction is strengthening. With more than 200,000 ETH moved into self-custody within 48 hours, many participants appear confident in Ethereum’s medium-term outlook, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. Historically, substantial exchange outflows have coincided with accumulation phases ahead of major market advances, especially when paired with favorable macro shifts.

For many analysts, Ethereum now sits at the center of a potential bullish impulse across altcoins. Despite its recent struggle to convincingly reclaim the $4,000 level, sentiment in the broader market remains constructive. ETH continues to benefit from fundamental tailwinds, including increasing network utility, expanding Layer-2 activity, and rising staking participation. If market conditions turn decisively risk-on, Ethereum’s role as the primary settlement and liquidity hub for the altcoin ecosystem positions it to lead capital flows.

Macro conditions are also aligning in ETH’s favor. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and signaling the end of quantitative tightening, global liquidity is expected to gradually improve. Historically, shifts toward monetary easing have accelerated inflows into risk assets — crypto included. As traditional markets anticipate a clearer pivot, investors may increasingly seek exposure to high-beta assets with strong structural narratives, and Ethereum fits that profile.

Ethereum Holds $3,900 as Price Compresses Below Key Moving Averages

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,905, holding a key support region but struggling to reclaim upside momentum as price remains capped beneath major moving averages. After failing to sustain moves above the $4,200 resistance area earlier this month, ETH has drifted lower into a tightening range, reflecting indecision and reduced volatility following recent macro-driven swings.

The chart shows ETH trading below both the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, which currently sit just above price and are acting as dynamic resistance. For bulls, reclaiming these levels — particularly a daily close above $4,050–$4,150 — would be a constructive sign that momentum is shifting back in favor of buyers. Such a reclaim could open a path toward retesting $4,300–$4,500, where recent supply pressure has consistently emerged.

On the downside, the $3,800 level remains the primary support to watch. A sustained break below this zone could expose ETH to lower levels near $3,500, especially if broader market sentiment weakens. However, the 200-day moving average (red) remains well below the price near $3,200, signaling that the long-term bullish structure is still intact.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com