Palantir stock jumped 7% on Monday after it reported third-quarter numbers that beat Wall Street estimates and pushed guidance higher for the fourth quarter.
According to the earnings report, the company posted $1.18 billion in revenue, outpacing the $1.09 billion analysts had expected. Earnings hit 21 cents per share, topping the 17 cents forecast.
The software company, known for supplying data tools to the U.S. government and large corporations, said it now expects $1.33 billion in Q4 revenue, well above the $1.19 billion analysts had been projecting.
That’s despite the ongoing government shutdown, which is now in its second month and still putting federal contracts at risk. Palantir said government revenue rose 52% year-over-year, totaling $486 million in Q3.
Palantir boosts full-year forecast as commercial business explodes
Palantir has relied heavily on defense contracts over the years, and those deals are still coming in. One of the largest remains its multi-year agreement with the U.S. Army, which could reach up to $10 billion.
The company has also drawn fire for how its software is used by agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement, but those criticisms weren’t addressed this quarter.
The full-year outlook has now been raised. Palantir expects $4.4 billion in revenue for 2025, up from the previous Wall Street estimate of $4.17 billion.
Free cash flow is now projected to land between $1.9 billion and $2.1 billion by year’s end. CEO Alex Karp said the company’s growth was driven by real demand, not hype.
Commercial revenue more than doubled to $397 million in Q3. The total value of signed commercial contracts shot up to $1.31 billion, over four times higher than a year earlier. The company has signed new partnerships in recent weeks with Snowflake, Lumen, and Nvidia, aiming to strengthen its commercial reach even more.
Total revenue rose 63% from the same quarter last year, when the company made $725.5 million. Net income jumped more than 230% to $475.6 million, or 18 cents per share, compared to $143.5 million, or 6 cents per share, the year before.
Palantir shares have now surged more than 170% since the start of 2025, giving it a market cap above $490 billion. That puts it among the largest tech companies globally by valuation.
But analysts have flagged concerns over the stock’s extreme valuation, especially when compared to much larger software firms with higher revenues.
In his letter to shareholders, Alex wrote:
“The reality is that Palantir has made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists in Palo Alto. And we have done so through authentic and substantive growth.”
That comment followed his jab at critics, who he said had been “left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement.”
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