Toncoin has plunged below $2, rattling investors as regulatory warnings and technical weaknesses converge, raising fears of a prolonged correction in the volatile crypto market.
The Nasdaq issued a notice to TON Strategy Co. for bypassing shareholder approval on a $558 million private placement used to acquire Toncoin. The move triggered panic selling, pushing the token below a key support level and highlighting the risks associated with governance lapses in crypto-linked public firms. The PIPE deal, originally intended to establish the first listed TON treasury, had initially boosted optimism, but the warning has now intensified uncertainty.
Technical Breakdown: Oversold Conditions Signal Potential Rebound
Toncoin’s failure to maintain levels above $2 marks a significant technical concern. Recent trading shows the token hovering around $1.96, breaching support after briefly rebounding from October lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory below 30, signaling that a tactical short-term recovery could be on the horizon.
Nasdaq’s warning to TON Strategy Co. over an unapproved $558M PIPE purchase triggered panic selling, pushing Toncoin below $2 and highlighting fragile market sentiment. Source: @Davide_Martini0 via X
High trading activity and increased netflows during the decline reflect strong selling pressure, yet analysts note that if the $1.80 support holds, Toncoin could experience a bounce. A recovery above $2 may provide temporary relief for traders and help stabilize market sentiment, although the broader trend remains cautious. The oversold RSI thus offers a window of opportunity amid prevailing market fear.
Broader Market Context
Toncoin’s recent decline coincides with heightened volatility across the broader cryptocurrency market. October 2025 witnessed dramatic swings, including Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000, followed by substantial sell-offs, wiping out billions in value and reinforcing a risk-averse trading environment. These factors contributed to Toncoin’s 13.8% weekly decline and ongoing hesitation among buyers.
Toncoin has fallen below $2 for the first time since its October crash. Source: @DurovPD via X
Investor sentiment remains fragile, particularly for tokens tied to institutional or corporate developments. Toncoin’s drop illustrates the market’s sensitivity to regulatory warnings, large-scale transactions, and overall sector volatility. Traders are closely monitoring the Ton blockchain ecosystem to determine whether the token can regain stability or face further downward pressure.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism Despite Fear
The Toncoin price prediction remains cautious in the near term. Regulatory concerns and the breakdown of key support levels have created a bearish backdrop, yet technical indicators such as oversold RSI readings suggest the potential for a short-term bounce. Holding $1.80 could pave the way for a recovery toward $2.30, offering tactical opportunities for traders.
Toncoin was trading at around $1.94, down 3.96% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
Toncoin now sits at a pivotal point where market fear meets potential opportunity. Investors should track regulatory updates and trading sentiment closely, as these will dictate whether the token stabilizes or continues to decline. While the $2 breakdown signals caution, oversold conditions hint at a possible rebound, making the coming days critical for Toncoin’s short-term trajectory
