The group of pure‑play Quantum computing stocks known on Wall Street as the “Quantum 4” has surged more than 100% this year.
The four companies (Rigetti, IonQ, D‑Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc) have become the center of one of the market’s most heated trends, even as investors struggle to figure out what any of these valuations are actually supposed to mean.
The pricing has been unstable, with wide swings happening in short periods. Traders and analysts are working to understand how to value technology that is still developing and is not yet widely commercialized.
The companies are working to build machines that use Quantum theory to solve tasks that current computers cannot handle, possibly supported by artificial intelligence.
Supporters say the technology could reshape areas such as cryptography and drug development.
The wave of interest has led to sharp moves in share prices. Many investors are treating these companies as early claims on a future computing model that has not yet arrived.
Valuations swing as investors try to price the future
Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs, who oversees the Defiance Quantum fund (QTUM), said, “All of a sudden, it feels like science fiction has moved into the world of real technological possibility.”
The statement reflects how quickly sentiment around the sector has changed, even though the businesses remain unprofitable.
Financial statements show losses, though Rigetti posted a quarterly profit in early 2025 due to changes in the value of securities it held, not core operations.
The volatility has been especially clear in Rigetti’s stock. Steve Sosnick, chief markets strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, “What is the right price to pay for a piece of the future?”
Rigetti traded at $1.06 a share earlier in the year before climbing to $58. By late October, it was the fourth‑most actively traded stock among Interactive Brokers customers.
More Rigetti shares changed hands than Apple or Amazon, two of the largest companies in the world. Rigetti now trades near $38, giving it a valuation of more than 1,000 times its sales. For comparison, Nvidia trades at about 50 times sales.
Christopher Poch, CEO of Promethium Advisors, who works with wealthy clients, described the pricing as “a magic act.” He said, “How else can you explain a company that has a $13 billion market capitalization but only $22 million in forecast revenues?”
LSEG earnings consensus shows Rigetti projected to earn $21.9 million in 2026. The numbers illustrate the valuation disconnect investors are facing.
Analysts change their price targets as corporate interest surges
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said traders have grouped these four companies together as the “Quantum 4,” separating them from larger names like IBM and Alphabet, which also work on Quantum computing.
Even with the high valuations, some analysts still recommend the stocks. David Williams at Benchmark Equity Research rated Rigetti as a “buy” and raised his price target from $20 to $50 last month.
He allegedly told Reuters, “The valuation on quantum names is more of an art than science.” On Monday, B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti to “Neutral,” citing its “premium valuation” and risks tied to possible U.S. government shutdowns. Yet Ellis raised his price target from $35 to $42. Rigetti traded at $36.43 on Tuesday, down nearly 7%.
Banks and corporations have begun showing interest.
JPMorgan Chase said last month it plans to invest up to $10 billion in strategic sectors such as Quantum computing. IBM and HSBC said in September that they used Quantum‑based systems to create a new bond trading algorithm.
Reports surfaced last week suggesting the U.S. government may also consider funding Quantum firms in exchange for equity stakes. A U.S. Department of Commerce official said the agency is “not currently negotiating” such plans.
A McKinsey report estimates the Quantum computing market could grow beyond $100 billion. But progress so far has been limited.
Rick Bradt, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said, “It’s the holy grail of computing; the use case is undeniable, and undeniably awesome. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the timing.”
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