Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s MACD golden cross appeared for the first time since April, when BTC rallied 40% in a month.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could reach $160,000 in October from current levels around $114,500.
Softer U.S. inflation data and expected Fed rate cuts are fueling bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Golden Cross Returns
Bitcoin (BTC $114,540) could be primed for a rally toward $160,000 as a widely tracked technical indicator flashes bullish.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) golden cross appeared on Sept. 5, according to trader BitBull. This marks the first such signal since April, when BTC surged 40% in a month to record highs.
The signal forms when the MACD line — a calculation of momentum between two simple moving averages — crosses above the signal line, a 9-period EMA used to gauge buy and sell signals.
“This time the MACD cross occurred below the zero line, which adds fuel to the rebound,” BitBull noted. “The last time this setup happened, Bitcoin hit a new ATH shortly after.”
A repeat performance would project BTC/USD at $160,000, aligning with several bullish 2025 cycle targets.
Macro Tailwinds Support the Case
Beyond technicals, macroeconomic shifts are adding momentum to Bitcoin’s rally potential.
Producer Price Index (PPI): Softer-than-expected wholesale inflation numbers have increased investor confidence.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): August CPI, due Thursday, will be critical for confirming rate-cut expectations.
Federal Reserve policy: Traders now price in a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Sept. 17 FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
“Inflation not as bad as expected — bring on the rate cut later this month,” trader Jelle commented, suggesting that Bitcoin could resume its broader uptrend once macro data confirms easing conditions.
Why $160K Matters
If BTC pushes toward $160,000, it would represent nearly a 40% gain in one month, mirroring April’s move. That would also put Bitcoin within striking distance of the $170,000–$185,000 zone flagged by other analysts as a 2025 target.
While September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, the golden cross + rate cut setup may prove to be a rare exception, flipping seasonal weakness into one of the cycle’s strongest rallies.
