Morgan Stanley strategists have cautioned that Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle, a period they suggest is historically favorable for profit-taking before a potential downturn.

Analysts warn of cyclical downturn

Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discussed Bitcoin’s market cycles on a recent podcast, likening them to the seasons. Galindo stated:

“We are in the fall season right now. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”

This analogy reflects a growing recognition among Wall Street executives that Bitcoin’s price movements follow a cyclical pattern, similar to other commodities or liquidity-driven assets.

Bearish signals emerge after price dip

Bitcoin recently fell below $99,000, dropping under its 365-day moving average—a key indicator tracked by analysts to gauge market sentiment.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, identified this breach as a strong bearish signal, and Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima described it as having “officially marked a technical bear market.”

Liquidity inflows plateau, ETF growth slows

Wintermute, a digital asset market-maker, reported that liquidity sources such as stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries have plateaued, contributing to the current market slowdown.

Despite this, data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold assets exceeding $137 billion.

Institutional investors remain cautious but engaged

Michael Cyprys, head of US brokers and exchanges research at Morgan Stanley, noted that institutions increasingly view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement.

He emphasized that regulatory improvements and ETF products have lowered entry barriers, but large investors tend to move cautiously due to internal processes and mandates.