Polymarket has soft-launched its US exchange, opening it to live beta users with relatively little fanfare. A few users have even been trading with real contracts, and the company is still refining its systems in advance of a wider launch.

Now, with that beta release, Polymarket makes a tentative return to the American market after years of being based overseas. The company had limited access from the United States as a result of an agreement with regulators in 2022.

This development comes as Polymarket announced on Wednesday that data from its prediction market platform will be integrated into Yahoo Finance, expanding the reach of its product to potentially more people.

According to the X announcement, Polymarket said that it had become Yahoo Finance’s “exclusive prediction market partner,” while sharing a 30-second video featuring the song “Timeless” by The Weekend and Playboi Carti.

Polymarket secures compliance for U.S. relaunch

Polymarket’s U.S. return comes amid heightened regulatory scrutiny. In 2022, the company settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), agreeing to pay a $1.4 million penalty after admitting that it had operated as an unregistered derivatives platform. 

This time, however, the company’s relaunch is built on compliance, as it is acquiring QCX, a CFTC-approved entity that operates as both a derivatives exchange and a clearinghouse.

Polymarket can rest easy, as it runs a legal show in the U.S., while ensuring the development of a decentralized and transparent system. It has also introduced a new, simpler fee structure that it hopes will appeal to users and challenge entrenched competitors, such as Kalshi Inc.

Later this month, Polymarket will launch with a small menu of markets, including sports and political results, among others. More are expected to be added. The gradual rollout, according to the team, helps it meet the regulatory requirements.

The resurgence of Polymarket also coincides with a surge in interest in prediction markets in the U.S. These markets, where people place bets on real-world events ranging from elections to the outcomes of reality television series, have garnered attention for the crowdsourcing of forecasts they provide.

Instead of taking bets — competing with traditional celebrity gossip sites for page views and advertising revenue — Polymarket functions more like a stock market. Users buy shares in an outcome they believe will prevail, and prices are based on the collective popular opinion. This arrangement is also more transparent and liquid — and, Coplan said, a more equitable deal for participants.

Polymarket intensifies competition in prediction markets

This re-entry by Polymarket increases the stakes for prediction platforms to address the challenge, aside from its main competitor, Kalshi Inc., which is already licensed in the U.S. and provides a market for event-based futures contracts. Meanwhile, for some of the largest companies in the gambling business, that same turf is now being seen as a new frontier: FanDuel last week announced that it would soon introduce its own product based on prediction markets.

Polymarket has a major advantage, though. Founded five years ago, the company’s platform, built on blockchain technology, allows members to settle trades almost as soon as they are executed and to view every transaction. Combined with low overheads, such as reduced fees and a decentralized system, it presents itself as a technologically advanced and compliance-friendly choice.

Insiders say Polymarket is on its way to a valuation of as high as $2 billion, following intense investor interest after it secured a commitment of up to $2 billion in venture capital from Intercontinental Exchange Inc., which owns the New York Stock Exchange. That round is, in some sense, a sign of increasing institutional interest in the future of event-based prediction markets.

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