XRP faces a critical technical juncture as the cryptocurrency remains unable to reclaim its 200-day moving average, a key resistance level that has repeatedly rejected bullish attempts throughout recent weeks. The struggle comes at a pivotal moment for Ripple's native token, with the first U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund launching on Nasdaq today under the ticker XRPC.
Trading at approximately $2.44 as of Wednesday, XRP has declined roughly 0.4% following the Canary Capital XRP ETF certification, suggesting that the historic institutional milestone may already be priced into the market. The cryptocurrency's failure to break above the $2.72 resistance zone — which aligns with the 200-day moving average, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, and the value area low from previous ranges — has raised concerns about weakening bullish momentum.
The recent price action reflects classic signs of buyer exhaustion. After multiple failed attempts to reclaim the 200-day moving average, XRP produced a new swing low, solidifying a broader bearish market structure. While the asset has initiated a temporary bounce from the $2.20 support level, the move carries clear signs of weakness, most notably declining volume that indicates buyers are not stepping in with conviction.
According to TipRanks technical analysis, XRP's moving averages present a "strong sell" signal, with the 5-day moving average at $2.93 well above the current price. The cryptocurrency's Relative Strength Index sits at 46.71, indicating neutral conditions, while the MACD indicator suggests a sell signal.
More concerning for bulls, a "death cross" formation has emerged on XRP's daily chart, where the 50-day exponential moving average crossed below the 200-day EMA. This technical pattern is among the most potent bearish signals in trading and historically precedes extended downtrends.
The $2.72 resistance zone remains the major technical hurdle. This level carries multiple confluences that make it particularly formidable: the 200-day moving average, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the value area low from the previous range. Historically, zones with such overlapping technical resistance often produce strong rejections, and XRP has already shown multiple failed attempts in this region.
Critical Support at $2.20 Under Scrutiny
Market participants are closely watching the $2.20 support level, which represents the first line of defense for any potential rally. This threshold has withstood multiple tests in recent trading sessions, demonstrating resilience despite broader market uncertainty. However, analysts warn that if XRP revisits this range, it may struggle to hold the level again.
"Another reversal from lows as XRP holds onto the $2.20 support," noted market analyst Guy on the Earth in a recent post. "Slap bang mid range right now — XRP is eyeing a test of the resistance between $2.63 and $2.72 next."
A decisive close below $2.20 would open the door for further declines, potentially toward the $2.10 level, which represents URPD support with 1.64 billion XRP traded at that price point. More extreme bearish scenarios project possible drops to $1.90 (June 2025 lows) or even $1.25, representing a 50% correction from current levels.
ETF Launch Provides Mixed Signals
The Canary Capital XRP ETF launched Wednesday following Nasdaq certification, marking a historic milestone as the first U.S. spot ETF offering direct exposure to XRP. The fund, structured under the Investment Company Act of 1940, allows traditional investors to access XRP through regular brokerage accounts without directly managing crypto assets.
"XRP is one of the most established and widely used digital assets in the world," said Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital. "Accessibility to XRP through an ETF will enable the next wave of adoption and growth in a critical blockchain system."
While the ETF launch represents a significant institutional validation, on-chain data reveals mixed sentiment among large holders. More than 216 million XRP (approximately $556 million) left exchanges in the week before the announcement, suggesting investors are holding rather than trading. However, whale wallets reduced their holdings by 10 million XRP (around $25 million) in the two days before launch, and long-term holders sold 135.8 million XRP by November 10.
Open interest in XRP futures dropped from early November highs to near recent lows, suggesting traders are less willing to hold leveraged positions. This decline in derivatives trading may lower short-term volatility as the market consolidates.
Final thoughts
For XRP to neutralize ongoing bearish momentum, it must reclaim the $2.72 level and the 200-day moving average with strong volume. The current bounce toward resistance appears more corrective than impulsive, suggesting the broader downtrend remains intact.
Analysts at CoinCodex project that XRP could trade between $2.41 and $2.42 over the coming week, representing minimal upside from current levels. The platform's technical analysis shows 8 indicators signaling bullish signals against 22 signaling bearish signals, resulting in an overall bearish sentiment.
More optimistic scenarios exist if XRP can break above key resistance levels. A clean break and daily close above $2.72-$2.75 could trigger a short-term rally toward $2.85-$3.00, while some analysts project potential targets of $5 by Q4 2025 if institutional inflows from multiple ETF approvals materialize. More than 20 XRP ETF filings are currently pending with the SEC, including proposals from Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, and Grayscale.
However, failure to break resistance increases the likelihood of a return to $2.20 support, with further downside risk remaining dominant. The technical setup creates a high-stakes environment where traders are positioning for a potentially significant move in either direction.
Despite the bearish technical setup, XRP's year-over-year performance remains exceptionally strong at +285.9% from $0.62 one year ago, demonstrating the cryptocurrency's volatile yet rewarding nature for long-term holders. The asset maintains its position as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at approximately $147 billion, trailing only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin Tether.
The coming days will prove critical for XRP as traders watch whether the ETF launch can provide enough institutional buying pressure to overcome the technical resistance, or whether the bearish chart patterns will prevail and push the cryptocurrency toward lower support levels.
