XRP is trading sideways after a volatile stretch that mirrored its Q3 movement. The altcoin has held within a narrow range despite increased market activity.
Historical patterns now suggest a potential shift, as XRP once again displays signs commonly seen before stronger Q4 performances.
XRP Is Mirroring Its Past In Many Ways
Q4 has historically been one of the strongest periods for XRP. Over the past 12 years, the token’s average Q4 return stands at 134%. While such gains are unlikely to repeat in the coming weeks, the trend highlights the asset’s long-term seasonal strength and signals conditions that often precede bullish reversals.
This historical resilience positions XRP as one of the few major cryptocurrencies that consistently benefits from year-end momentum.
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XRP Quarterly Returns. Source: CryptoRank
Unrealized losses are rising again, creating conditions that have previously triggered strong rebounds. Investors often push prices higher when losses spike, driven by the incentive to recover value. The same behavior was observed in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025, each followed by a clear move upward.
If this pattern repeats, XRP may be positioned for a recovery fueled by renewed buying pressure. The recent uptick in unrealized losses suggests growing tension in the market, which historically precedes breakouts as investors attempt to regain profitability.
XRP Relative Unrealized Loss. Source: Glassnode
The MVRV Long/Short Difference is dipping toward the neutral zone. This indicates long-term holders are seeing reduced profits, often a precursor to a shift in short-term holder behavior. A drop below neutral would signal rising short-term gains, which may lead to brief selling as traders lock in profits.
After this phase, the indicator typically climbs back into positive territory. When long-term holder profits rise again, XRP has often followed with upward price action. This dynamic suggests a possible setup for stronger gains if the market aligns with previous cycles.
XRP MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment
XRP Price Awaits A Trigger
XRP trades at $2.29 after moving sideways for several weeks following a 22% drop in October. The consolidation reflects market caution but also shows resilience as buyers continue to defend key levels through short-term uncertainty.
The current indicators suggest a bullish outlook that supports a move above $2.50, a crucial psychological zone. Clearing this level may allow XRP to break past $2.64 and potentially reach $3.02, helping the token recover October’s losses.
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, XRP has been in sideways movement for 34 days, similar to late July after another 22% crash. If history repeats, XRP may continue ranging between $2.20 and $2.50, delaying any major breakout until stronger momentum emerges.
