Stellar crypto is trading near a major long-term support level that has historically driven sharp reversals

With analysts watching closely as bearish momentum meets structural strength at a critical technical junction.

Analyst Highlights Key Long-Term Support Retest

Analyst Master Kenobi emphasized on X that the coin is retesting a long-term ascending support line that has previously produced strong market reactions. The daily chart shows two major rebounds marked by yellow arrows, where the token surged after touching this same structural level. Price is currently testing the line again, forming a pivotal moment within a broader falling-wedge pattern defined by a dominant descending resistance trendline.

Source: X

The token trades below the 21-day SMA, signaling short-term bearish pressure, yet the long-term trend remains intact as long as the ascending support holds. Previous touches — including the July retest — resulted in heightened volatility, noted by the red reaction zones. A successful defense could initiate another climb toward the upper wedge boundary, while a breakdown would expose lower areas. The structure indicates a significant decision point with historical precedence favoring bullish reactions.

Open Interest Signals Possible Volatility Return

A second chart shows XLM/USD on the 1-hour timeframe with Aggregated Open Interest (OI) displayed below. The price structure shifted from higher highs near 0.305 to a clear downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish dominance. Recent candles show stabilization between 0.264 and 0.270, forming a narrow consolidation range without confirming reversal momentum.

Source: Open Interest Chart

Open Interest declined steadily during the major selloff, indicating position unwinding and reduced speculative activity. Toward the right side of the chart, OI begins rising again as price moves sideways, suggesting new positioning ahead of a potential expansion in volatility. A break above resistance in the 0.270–0.275 region or below 0.260 may determine the next directional move.

Market Data Shows Consolidation Near 0.28 USDT

According to BraveNewCoin, Stellar currently trades at 0.27 USDT, marking a -4.40% decline over the last 24 hours. The token’s market capitalization stands at approximately 9.02 billion USDT, with a 24-hour trading volume of 353.09 million USDT and a circulating supply of 32.12 billion tokens.

Source: BraveNewCoin

Despite the recent price drop, these metrics reflect continued activity and stability within the coin’s ecosystem. Analysts point to its consistent trading volume as evidence of ongoing participation from long-term holders, even amid market-wide caution. The price has ranged between 0.276 USDT and 0.290 USDT over the past day, suggesting the asset is consolidating within a tight channel as buyers look for confirmation of trend continuation.

Indicators Show Bearish Momentum With Possible Stabilization

At the time of writing, the coin trades around $0.264, extending weakness along the lower region of its Bollinger Bands. Price remains below the Basis line near $0.292, maintaining a corrective trend. The bands appear moderately tight, reflecting reduced volatility following an extended downside phase. The crypto briefly tapped the lower band at $0.254, signaling oversold conditions, though buyers have not yet provided strong follow-through.

Source: TradingView

The MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line, although the histogram is near neutral — a sign of potential momentum stabilization. For bulls, reclaiming the baseline is essential to shift near-term structure. A breakdown below the lower band exposes the $0.24–$0.25 support zone, while upward attempts must clear $0.28 to build traction.