XRP has entered a period of heightened volatility as the initial momentum from newly launched ETFs begins to taper, raising questions among traders and investors about whether this activity can sustain future price movement.

Despite strong institutional inflows earlier in November, the token is facing broader market pressures that underscore the need for cautious interpretation of short-term price movements.

ETF Momentum Cools After Record Launches

XRP’s market activity this week reflects the easing enthusiasm around recent XRP ETF launches. According to BraveNewCoin, multiple ETFs—including AMPLIFY’s XRPM ETF—have recently entered the market. XRPM, which debuted on Cboe BZX, is an options-based fund targeting roughly 3% monthly income via covered calls on XRP holdings, with a 0.75% expense ratio and $750,000 in initial capital.

AMPLIFY has confirmed that its XRP ETF is scheduled to launch later this week. Source: Armando Pantoja via X

The month also saw the approval of several U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)-backed spot XRP ETFs. For example, Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF recorded $58 million in day-one volume and now manages $248 million in assets, making it the largest XRP-linked ETF available to U.S. investors. While these launches indicate growing institutional access, analysts like Armando Pantoja, a derivatives strategist focused on XRP markets, note that “income-oriented covered-call ETFs may attract yield-focused investors but could limit upside potential due to call overwriting.”

Market Pressure Persists Despite ETF Inflows

Despite institutional inflows, XRP remains under pressure, trading near the fragile $2.15–$2.22 support range. Data from CoinGecko and TradingView show a weekly decline of approximately 11%, highlighting vulnerability to retracement. Technical analysts monitoring XRP charts, including those active on TradingView, suggest that a breakdown below $2.22 could increase downside risk toward $1.57, the October flash crash low—a move representing over 30% potential decline.

XRP’s 1H chart shows lower highs and a potential liquidity grab, suggesting a possible retest of support before any bounce. Source: minno91 on TradingView

Conversely, stabilization above $2.20 could allow for moderate recovery if market sentiment improves, particularly with upcoming ETF launches from Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and CoinShares. The inflows associated with these ETFs may attract more income-oriented traders rather than speculative buyers, suggesting that liquidity patterns could remain uneven.

Author Observations: Structural Weakness in Short-Term Charts

Analyzing the 1-hour and 4-hour charts reveals a series of lower highs and failed attempts to reclaim key resistance around $2.27–$2.31. Volume analysis indicates that recent spikes coincided with temporary liquidity grabs, potentially trapping late long entries before retracement.

XRP intraday levels show resistance at 2.2703 and support at 2.2565, with targets for short-term trades, emphasizing disciplined risk management. Source: globuscapitas on TradingView

Intraday support levels of $2.25 and $2.21 have become increasingly significant, indicating narrower trading ranges and higher volatility. This aligns with historical patterns observed in XRP price swings, where consolidation zones often precede larger directional moves.

Revisiting Historical Fractals with Caution

Some traders are drawing comparisons to previous XRP cycles from 2014, 2017, and 2018. For instance, crypto analyst Cryptollica, known for publishing fractal-based models on TradingView, identifies a potential breakout from the $2.16 zone, with long-term projections reaching $10. Community sentiment includes even higher speculative targets of $20–$33.

Cryptollica projects XRP above $10 using Elliott Wave fractals as Franklin Templeton’s EZRP ETF debuts with strong volume, despite the token slipping to $2.16 and mixed market sentiment. Source: Cryptollica via X

It is important to note that such fractal analyses are retrospective tools, not predictive models. Outcomes from previous cycles do not guarantee similar performance today. Fractals should be interpreted as frameworks for potential scenarios rather than actionable price forecasts.

Broader Market and Fundamental Considerations

Beyond ETFs and chart patterns, XRP’s performance is influenced by macro factors such as crypto market correlation, global liquidity conditions, and regulatory developments.

The Ripple SEC lawsuit resolution has strengthened XRP’s long-term fundamentals, positioning it for continued use in cross-border settlements and enterprise blockchain applications. However, short-term volatility is likely to remain high due to these overlapping drivers.

Looking Ahead: A Complex Outlook for XRP in 2025

XRP’s current price behavior reflects a combination of institutional ETF inflows, technical market structure, and historical fractal considerations.

XRP was trading at around 2.16, down 3.84% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin

Analysts emphasize caution, noting that while stabilization above key support levels could precede moderate recovery, downside risks remain if volatility expands. Traders and investors are advised to interpret technical, ETF, and fractal indicators as informational tools, not definitive forecasts, and to consider broader market and macroeconomic risks when assessing XRP exposure.