The mood across the crypto market has flipped dramatically, and Bitcoin’s latest slump has triggered a chorus of predictions that a new bear market has arrived.
Key Takeaways:
Traders are loudly bearish, yet most are still holding long positions rather than rotating to shorts.
10x Research says crowded positioning, not sentiment, is what usually creates major opportunities.
The Coinbase volatility trade from early November has fully played out, and new setups are now forming elsewhere.
Yet according to new analysis from 10x Research, the majority of traders calling for further downside aren’t actually positioned for it — and that disconnect may become the most important catalyst in the weeks ahead.
The report notes that despite the louder bearish commentary, positioning has barely changed. Most market participants have remained long throughout the recent downturn and are now coping with mounting losses rather than rotating into short or neutral exposure. That mismatch, 10x suggests, is usually where real opportunities begin to surface.
Complacency Is What Hurts Traders — Not Bear Markets
10x Research points out that narratives like “three years up, one year down” tend to resurface whenever Bitcoin stumbles, but the market’s history shows that inflection points rarely align with consensus expectations. The research firm stresses that tactical positioning and structural macro opinion are two different things — and when too many people think the same way while holding the opposite trade, risk–reward dynamics shift fast.
Their own October call to turn bearish is highlighted as an example of how sentiment can become too comfortable. Back then, implied volatility on Coinbase surged following earnings, presenting what 10x characterized as an almost one-sided opportunity: sell volatility and collect roughly 5% into mid-December 2025 as long as Coinbase stayed under $390.
Everyone’s Talking About a Bitcoin Bear Market — Smart Traders See Something Else
Many traders have suddenly turned bearish, yet most are neither short nor neutral; they’ve stayed long and are now feeling the pain.
The familiar “three years up, one year down” bear-market… pic.twitter.com/HeGsj9wLPd
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) November 19, 2025
Weeks later, with the stock tumbling to $261 and the option premium collapsing to nearly zero, that window has closed — and 10x says it’s now time to look elsewhere.
Volatility Creates Opportunity — For Those Who Know Where to Look
Historically, bear markets haven’t destroyed the fortunes of great traders; they’ve created them. 10x Research recalls that during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Japanese shipping giants appeared untouchable right up until demand evaporated and China saturated global supply. Investors who reacted early captured extraordinary returns.
The warning is clear: markets that look indestructible can reverse without warning. The report draws a parallel to the current race for AI chips, with Nvidia and OpenAI driving unprecedented demand — a situation that appears “as irresistible as Japanese shipping did in 2008.” If that momentum cracks, the impact could be just as dramatic.
Bitcoin Is Touching a Critical Trend Line — The Next Move Will Define the Cycle
Bitcoin is now sitting right on top of the same long-term uptrend that has marked every major bottom during this cycle. Each time that support has been tested, it has triggered either a tactical bounce or the beginning of a new structural leg up.
That leaves traders at a crossroads: is this the moment to lean against extreme pessimism, or the moment to get defensive?
10x Research argues that the answer depends not on the headlines but on positioning data — and that currently, positioning appears lopsided enough to create opportunity.
The firm’s closing message is blunt: fear is high, positioning is crowded, and this is when smart money prepares for the next major trade — not when it sits still.
