Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving, projected for April 2028.
The halving event, which cuts Bitcoin’s issuance rate by 50%, has historically reduced supply and driven long-term price increases when demand remains stable.
Sigel believes this upcoming cycle could be especially impactful as younger generations increasingly view Bitcoin as a more efficient and borderless store of value than gold.
We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving. Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) October 7, 2025
He explained that gold’s appeal lies primarily in its use as a reserve of value, rather than in industrial or jewelry applications. Bitcoin, he argued, is now fulfilling that same role in digital form, particularly among emerging-market investors seeking protection from inflation and currency depreciation.
If Bitcoin continues to gain traction as a “digital gold,” Sigel estimates its market value could climb dramatically. Using current gold prices as a reference, he calculated a potential valuation of $644,000 per BTC if Bitcoin achieves half of gold’s total market cap.
