KEY TAKEAWAYS
VanEck believes Bitcoin could set a new all-time high in late 2025 through 2026.
Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” is being reinforced by institutional adoption, VanEck said.
The firm said that scarcity remains a key driver.
Global asset manager VanEck has reiterated its long-standing framing of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” emphasizing its scarcity and growing adoption, while also signaling optimism about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory into 2026.
VanEck Says Bitcoin ATH Possible In 2026
In an interview on The Paul Barron Show, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research and Portfolio Manager at VanEck, said the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle remains valid.
Sigel noted that the crypto market still has room to grow as it enters the next year.
In an August blog post, VanEck stopped short of offering an explicit price target but suggested that Bitcoin could set a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026, following the established post-halving cycle pattern.
Historical data shows that rallies often peak 12–18 months after a halving, which positions late 2025 through 2026 as a potential window for record-breaking gains.
The firm tempered its optimism with caution, stressing that the scenarios are illustrative rather than predictive:
Bitcoin Scarcity and Halvings
VanEck underscored Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, noting that halvings — programmed 50% reductions in block rewards occurring roughly every four years — continue to slow issuance.
The latest halving in April 2024 has, according to VanEck’s research, historically preceded “explosive returns.”
With the next supply reduction set for 2028, analysts believe the 2024 event could drive Bitcoin toward new highs over the next 12–18 months.
Institutional Adoption Surging
Once confined to small online communities, Bitcoin is now held by ETFs, corporations, and even nation-states, with estimated holdings of $196 billion as of mid-2025.
VanEck pointed to the growing presence of Bitcoin in institutional portfolios, particularly as a hedge against inflation and as a non-correlated asset.
The firm also highlighted innovations in Layer 2 scaling, especially the Lightning Network and the upcoming RGB protocol, which could expand Bitcoin’s use cases into tokenized assets such as equities and real estate:
“RGB has the potential to expand the use cases of Bitcoin, making it a more versatile and useful platform for developers and users alike, ushering in new opportunities for innovation and growth within the ecosystem,” the firm wrote.
Inflation Hedge Potential
With global money supply expansion and rising inflation pressures post-COVID, VanEck said Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization make it resistant to the erosion of purchasing power.
Unlike fiat currencies, the firm noted, Bitcoin is not subject to the same “inflationary pressures,” making it an “attractive option for investors concerned about the impact of inflation on their portfolios and their subsequent purchasing power.”
“Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge against inflation has increasingly become a talking point central to investment decision-making,” the firm wrote.
Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has outperformed other asset classes in 8 of the past 11 years, VanEck added, with a 10-year return of 35,225% as of June 2025.
