Bitcoin has yet to flash a single confirmed market-top warning signal even after dwindling down 30.7% from its all-time high in early October, according to data from analytics platform Coinglass reviewed on Tuesday.
None of the 30 monitored bull-market peak indicators have reached their activation thresholds, leaving the composite dashboard at “0/30” as of the latest update. At least 15 triggers are needed before Coinglass confirms the market has peaked.
The absence of signals suggests the market has not entered the type of extreme euphoria, with an average progress level of 43.84% toward peak conditions, far below danger territory.
Price trend, supply, dominance indicators nearing activation
Although none of the indicators have reached their thresholds, four of them are approaching critical levels. The closest among them is the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply, which registered 29.37% against a target of 30%, reaching 97.9% of the level associated with prior tops.
The second-closest metric is Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply, with 14.09 million BTC recorded versus a bull-market peak threshold of 13.5 million. Supply held by long-term investors mostly declines during topping phases as holders distribute into rising prices, and this metric reached 95.82%, the second-highest reading on the dashboard.
The third is Bitcoin Dominance, which rose to 58.16%, several percentage points below the 65% reference level associated with past market peaks. The Bitcoin Trend Indicator printed 6.14 against a required 7 with a progress of 87.72%.
At the other end of the scale, the Bitcoin AHR999 Top Escape Indicator sits at 5.64, far above the ≤0.45 level expected during overheated conditions. With just 7.98% progress, it is the furthest from confirmation among all 30 metrics.
The Bitcoin Ah999 Index, another valuation-based top detector, prints 0.54 against a required ≥4 and a 13.5% progress, suggesting the market is under moot stress. Lastly, the Bitcoin Bubble Index, tracking how speculative the market is, had clocked 9.98 compared to a target of 80, showing little resemblance to prior mania phases.
ETF net flows spell Bitcoin market’s risk aversion
Bitcoin hovered near $87,800 on Tuesday after rebounding from a monthly low of $82,000, which has been flipped by buyers as its psychological support.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.5 billion in outflows this month, with Monday’s session alone producing $151 million in net BTC ETF outflows. Other coins like Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw inflows of $97 million and $58 million, respectively.
Despite selective inflows into ETH and SOL products, the broader crypto-fund landscape has seen heavy withdrawals that reached $1.9 billion in outflows last week, the third-worst redemption period since 2018, according to CoinShares.
“This level of volatility is something Wall Street investors are not very used to, and BTC has dropped more than 30% in just over a month. Once that selling pressure is exhausted, it becomes a setup for the market to recover, mainly driven by one thing: the expected rate cut in December,” DeFi investment group What Exchange commented on X.
BTC price trend similar to 2021, XRP and ETH rally
According to market analyst Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin’s current price chart is similar to its 2021 bull-to-bear pattern. When defending the $82,000 macro base, the king coin drew a trend that was seen in 2021, holding a support band before breaking down.
“If the downtrend breaks next…The entire market flips bullish,” Merlijn told his followers.
Ethereum showed signs of active two-way trading, with volatility spikes and aggressive orders hitting both sides of the book. Buyers kept buying dips between $2,790 and $2,800, while sellers kept moves at $2,820 and $2,835 through heavy walls of liquidity.
CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain spotted whale addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have reached levels above 21 million ETH, which could have helped the second coin by market cap keep its 4.3% price boost in the last day.
On XRP, new XRP ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Grayscale attracted $164 million in net inflows on launch day, with combined inflows exceeding $600 million in under two weeks. As Cryptopolitan reported early Tuesday, institutional interest has taken the coin to a 7% rally in 24 hours, but a brief price pullback took it from an intraday high of $2.25 to $2.21.
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