Bitcoin’s latest rebound has taken it back above $88,000, but developments in the derivatives market are drawing just as much attention as the price movement itself.
Key Takeaways
A $1.76 billion Bitcoin call-options position suggests a trader expects BTC to finish the year between $100,000 and $118,000.
The trade uses a call-condor strategy, indicating bullish momentum without anticipating a breakout to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin recently bounced back above $88,000 after last week’s drop to $80,000, helped by renewed expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
One trader has opened a position worth $1.76 billion that points to expectations of a continuation of the rally into the final weeks of the year.
The bet reveals a preference for a controlled rally — not a breakout
Options data from Deribit shows that the investor is not positioning for a move to new all-time highs, but rather for Bitcoin to revisit six-figure territory and then stay contained within that band. The trade uses a call-condor setup, which becomes most profitable if Bitcoin finishes inside a specific price window at expiration.
For this position, the window is set between $100,000 and $118,000, with strike prices arranged at $100K, $106K, $112K and $118K — all with the December 25 maturity date. The strategy is designed to benefit if Bitcoin rises meaningfully from current levels, but without breaking into a runaway parabolic surge.
Three huge blocks printed on Deribit today via Paradigm, total of 20K BTC notional!
Trader lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25. Signal is clear: a structured bullish view – expecting BTC to reach the 100–118k zone, not explode past it.
Trade: BTC 26… pic.twitter.com/zSyFgNs7dt
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) November 24, 2025
According to Deribit, the configuration shows a “structural bullish view”: the trader anticipates six-figure pricing, but not a blow-off top.
Macro backdrop adds context to the trade
Bitcoin’s rally comes just days after falling to $80,000 last week. Analysts say the rebound is being supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in December, a shift that would reduce pressure on risk assets and potentially draw more institutional capital back into crypto.
The derivatives trade appears to reflect the same sentiment — confidence in continued upside, but awareness that macro conditions remain a limiting factor.
What it signals
The position doesn’t guarantee anything about the market, but it does show where at least one large trader believes Bitcoin could reasonably finish the year: above $100,000, but below $118,000.
Whether that outlook aligns with broader investor expectations will become clearer over the next few weeks as derivatives volumes build toward the December expiration cycle.
