XRP price enters December after a weak November, with the token down nearly 13% for the month. December has often appeared strong on paper due to the 2017 outlier, but recent years have shown much tamer returns.
With ETF inflows rising, long-term holders selling, and XRP trading near a key resistance zone, traders want to know if December can offer a cleaner setup. This analysis looks at XRP’s seasonal history, on-chain behavior, and the levels that matter most.
December History And ETF Momentum For XRP: A Mixed Bag?
At first glance, December looks like a strong month for XRP, with an average gain of about 69.6%. But the median return is –3.16%, showing that the +818% surge in 2017 inflated the long-term average.
A more realistic comparison comes from recent years, with a gain of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.
XRP Price History: CryptoRank
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November 2025 has been weak. XRP is down almost 13%, which makes traders doubt whether the positive December seasonality still applies.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes this December could behave differently because institutional demand is now active through ETFs. He told BeInCrypto:
“December is likely to look very different for XRP this year, mainly because institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the back of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional interest and capital from the outset,” he said.
He also noted that XRP is already on a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling more than $640 million and added:
“ETF inflow sustainability will now likely be the major tailwind for XRP’s price action in December,” he believes
ETF Data: SoSo Value
Youssef, however, still remains cautious. He warns:
“If the broader market environment weakens further and ETF flows reverse, XRP will likely follow BTC and ETH movements and retest $2”, he said.
Together, the mixed December history and the fresh ETF momentum show that XRP’s December depends heavily on whether institutional demand continues.
On-Chain Signals Aren’t The Most Bullish
XRP’s on-chain picture does not fully support a strong December yet. Long-term holders — especially those in the 1–3 year group — continue to reduce their balances.
This data comes from HODL Waves, which shows how supply is spread across different holding periods. Over the past month, the 1–2 year cohort dropped from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the 2–3 year cohort moved from 14.80% to 14.251%.
These changes may seem small, but they matter because these groups hold a significant share of the circulating supply. Their selling weakens any upside attempt.
XRP HODLers Selling: Glassnode
Ray also warned about this behavior. He said:
“Long-term holders still control a disproportionate share of the circulating supply… XRP can record substantial gains in December only if institutional demand remains strong enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders,” he mentioned.
The cost basis heatmap reinforces the same risk. It shows the strongest supply cluster between $2.445 and $2.460, where about 1.749 billion XRP sits.
This is the exact area that has acted as resistance earlier. Even if ETF inflows remain strong, the XRP price still needs to break through this wall for a clean bullish trend to form.
XRP Price Heatmap: Glassnode
Together, the long-term holder distribution and the heavy cost-basis cluster explain why the XRP price in December may need a significant push to gain momentum.
XRP Price In December: Key Levels And The Most Realistic Scenario
The XRP price trades near $2.196, just above the second rebound from $1.772. This forms a clear double-bottom structure — one bounce in October and another in late November.
The pattern supports a short-term recovery attempt, but XRP must clear $2.307 and then the key breakout level at $2.459. This level perfectly aligns with the cost basis heatmap clusters.
A clean daily close above $2.459 unlocks the next zone near $2.612. This lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the cost-basis cluster, and Ray Youssef’s own view. As he said:
“A more realistic target for December is $2.60. A clear breakout above $2.60 would be the first firm indication of a bullish shift,” he highlighted.
The technical and fundamental targets both sit at $2.60–$2.61.
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView
If ETF flows weaken and Bitcoin and Ethereum pull back, XRP can follow the broader market. Youssef noted:
“If BTC and ETH experience another downturn in December, XRP will likely follow suit,” he mentioned.
If that happens, the key zone to watch is $2.119. A close below it exposes the $1.772 support again.
At this point, the XRP price in December sits between two paths. Sustained ETF demand can drive a break above $2.459 and then $2.60–$2.61.
Without it, the XRP price is likely to remain tied to Bitcoin’s direction and revisit lower ranges.
