I. Overview of the Macro Background

The current global macroeconomic environment is at a delicate yet critical turning point. With continued weakening US economic data, the market has almost reached a consensus that the Federal Reserve will initiate its current round of interest rate cuts on September 17th. Data from the CME FedWatch tool and the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting has soared to the 88%–99% range, making it virtually certain. On the evening of September 10th, Jinshi reported that the US PPI for August was 2.6% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 3.3% and the previous reading of 3.30%. This was lower than the 3.1% year-on-year increase in July and significantly below expectations. After the unexpectedly weaker-than-expected August PPI growth eased market concerns that inflationary pressures would hinder monetary easing, traders on Wednesday bet that the Federal Reserve may initiate a series of rate cuts, continuing through the end of the year. Based on pricing in futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, followed by further rate cuts of the same magnitude throughout the year. Meanwhile, some Wall Street institutions and international investment banks, such as Bank of America and Standard Chartered, have even gone so far as to speculate that there may be room for a second rate cut this year. While a one-time, aggressive 50 basis point move is still considered a low-probability event by the market, given the unexpectedly rapid cooling of the labor market, this possibility is no longer completely dismissed. The direct trigger for this shift in policy expectations is the recent significant deterioration in the US job market. August's non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, far below the consensus market forecast of 160,000 to 180,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, a new high since 2021. Even more shocking, the US Department of Labor revised its employment data for the past year downward by over 900,000 jobs in a single revision. This suggests that the robust employment narrative relied upon by the market over the past few months was significantly overstated, and the true state of the labor market is more fragile than it appears. Historically, data revisions of this magnitude typically occur only at the beginning of a recession or after a major shock. Therefore, this adjustment quickly intensified market expectations of an accelerated shift to easing by the Federal Reserve.

However, the slowdown in employment has not led to a simultaneous rapid decline in inflation. Instead, it has created a complex situation of "slowing growth and sticky inflation." The latest data shows that the US CPI remains around 2.9%, while the core PCE fluctuates between 2.9% and 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. This sticky inflation situation means that policymakers remain under pressure when easing monetary policy. They must provide a buffer against cooling employment while avoiding excessively stimulating a resurgence in prices. This dilemma has significantly widened market disagreements over the Fed's future policy path: doves emphasize that the deteriorating labor market poses a systemic risk and call for faster and more aggressive rate cuts; hawks, on the other hand, argue that current price levels are not negligible and that a premature shift could undermine the long-term inflation anchor. Every move by the Fed will be amplified and interpreted in financial markets. Against this backdrop, price signals in financial markets also reflect rapidly shifting expectations. The US dollar index continues to fall under pressure, reaching a near one-year low, indicating that investors are reassessing the attractiveness of US currency assets. In contrast, safe-haven and liquidity-sensitive assets have performed strongly. Gold has been climbing steadily since the summer, recently breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting new all-time highs, becoming the most direct beneficiary of the expected easing of liquidity. In the Treasury market, long-term interest rates have fallen significantly after experiencing high volatility at the beginning of the year, but the yield curve remains deeply inverted, reinforcing market concerns about the risk of a future economic recession. Meanwhile, stock market performance has been relatively mixed, with technology and growth sectors remaining resilient thanks to expectations of falling interest rates, while traditional cyclical sectors have performed poorly due to fundamental pressures.

For the global capital market, this macroeconomic landscape represents more than just a turning point in US monetary policy; it is also being interpreted as the beginning of a new global liquidity cycle. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and emerging market central banks are all closely watching the Fed's moves, with some even signaling easing in advance, attempting to capitalize on the global reallocation of funds. While the US dollar weakened, some emerging market currencies gained some respite, and commodity prices remained firm, supported by liquidity expectations. This spillover effect means that the September FOMC meeting is not only an event for US financial markets but also a key turning point in the global risk asset pricing framework. This macroeconomic backdrop is particularly crucial for the cryptoasset market. Over the past decade, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gradually transitioned from fringe assets to mainstream investment portfolios, with their price fluctuations increasingly correlated with the macro liquidity environment. Historically, Bitcoin often reacts in advance of monetary policy easing, exhibiting an anticipation-driven rally. However, after the policy is implemented, the market sometimes experiences a short-term pullback due to deteriorating economic realities, often driven by a sell-off in the market. Today, amidst a complex landscape characterized by rapidly weakening employment, persistent inflation, a weakening US dollar, and record-breaking gold prices, Bitcoin's pricing logic stands at a critical juncture between policy expectations and economic realities. Traders, institutional investors, and retail investors alike are closely watching the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17th, which could become a decisive turning point for the crypto market in the coming months and, potentially, the entire year.

II. Overview of the Current Crypto Market

Bitcoin's market price has recently stabilized around $113,000, with a weekly increase of approximately 2.4%, generally maintaining a relatively stable range of fluctuations. Notably, current volatility has fallen to multi-month lows, indicating that the market has entered a period of wait-and-see trading and momentum accumulation. Several analysts have pointed to the key short-term technical range between $110,700 and $114,000. If the price can successfully break through $114,000 and stabilize, it could open up a new round of upside, potentially shifting the market towards betting on a return of liquidity. A break below $110,700 would raise the primary support level at $107,000. A failure of this level could trigger a deeper correction to around $100,000. This pattern of resistance above and support below reflects investors' cautious stance regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve policy window. The market is temporarily controlling positions ahead of key announcements, mitigating short-term volatility. Compared to Bitcoin's volatile consolidation, Ethereum's recent performance has been slightly weaker, and with continued net outflows from ETFs, the funding market has shown a contracting trend. Some market participants believe that Ethereum's current ecosystem narrative is relatively weak. After the frenzy of the first half of the year, Layer 2 expansion and re-staking have entered a cooling-off phase, leaving institutional investors with little incentive to allocate incremental capital to the platform in the short term. However, ETH's on-chain activity remains resilient, with DeFi usage and staking remaining high, which has somewhat mitigated the negative impact of capital outflows. In contrast, assets such as XRP and Solana have experienced a temporary rebound due to expectations of interest rate cuts. XRP, in particular, saw a single-day increase of approximately 4% after ETF-related products gained market traction, demonstrating that some investors are shifting risk appetite to secondary mainstream cryptocurrencies during Bitcoin's consolidation. Solana continues to rely on ecosystem innovation and institutional interest, particularly the news that its Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) concept has been approved by Nasdaq, making it a pioneering example of on-chain capital marketization and providing an independent catalyst for Solana. ETF fund flows are one of the core structural factors in the current market. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows over the past few weeks, signaling a short-term wait-and-see approach by institutional investors. However, some new products and potential approvals remain a focus of market attention. For example, the XRP ETF and the anticipated approval of a new batch of Bitcoin ETFs remain viewed as key catalysts for a new wave of capital inflows. Some research institutions estimate that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a cumulative 75–100 basis points by 2025, this could unleash over $6 billion in incremental funds into crypto ETFs, creating a potential structural buying opportunity. This logic mirrors the experience of 2024, when the combined effects of ETF inflows and corporate demand for coin purchases drove Bitcoin's counter-trend strength following the rate cut. The difference is that the pace of ETF inflows in 2025 has slowed significantly, with the market awaiting a new trigger for capital inflows.

Beyond the traditional logic surrounding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs, emerging narratives are also shaping market structure. First, there's the rapid rise of digital asset treasuries (DATs). As a hybrid model combining public company equity financing with on-chain reserves, DATs have expanded beyond the Bitcoin and Ethereum cases to the Solana ecosystem. The recent approval of SOL Strategies for listing on the Nasdaq signifies the accelerating integration of traditional capital markets with crypto asset reserve mechanisms. DATs often create a positive feedback loop through asset appreciation and capital premiums in bull markets, while in bear markets, redemptions and sell-offs amplify risk. Their pro-cyclical nature makes them highly sought-after innovative products. Some analysts have dubbed DATs "the next ETF," predicting they could become an institutional sector in the capital market in the coming years. Meanwhile, the meme coin and high-risk altcoin contract markets remain hot, serving as a bellwether for retail investor sentiment. In the absence of trending mainstream cryptocurrencies, significant capital has flowed into meme projects with high short-term volatility, such as Dogecoin, Bonk, and PEPE, which maintain high levels of activity on social media and in the contract market. Cyclical rises in the meme sector typically signal a rebound in market risk appetite, but they are often accompanied by higher margin calls and short-term volatility. This high-risk appetite contrasts sharply with the conservative allocations of mainstream institutional investors, demonstrating that the crypto market remains highly fragmented.

Overall, the crypto market currently finds itself in a complex equilibrium: Bitcoin fluctuates within a critical range, awaiting policy signals to determine its direction; Ethereum faces short-term funding pressure, but its ecosystem remains resilient in the long term; secondary mainstream coins and emerging narratives offer some local bright spots, but are unlikely to independently drive the overall market; ETF liquidity and stablecoin expansion underpin the market's resilience. Combined with the emerging DAT model and the high-stakes meme market , these factors create a multifaceted landscape. At this critical juncture when macroeconomic policy is about to shift, market sentiment is poised between caution and tentativeness. This wait, tempered by low volatility, may well foster the next phase of significant market activity.

III. Historical Review and Current Status of U.S. Interest Rate Cuts

A historical review of the interaction between the past three rounds of interest rate cuts and the crypto market clearly demonstrates how the same macro signal can exhibit vastly different price paths under varying fundamentals and funding structures. 2019 was a classic example of "expectations first, realizations then pullback": before fundamentals deteriorated enough to trigger easing, Bitcoin saw a recovery in risk appetite and a repricing of valuations. The Federal Reserve implemented three small interest rate cuts in July, September, and October. The marginal easing of monetary conditions and belated bets on a "soft landing" fueled a steady rebound in BTC throughout the first half of the year, reaching over $13,000 in June. However, once the policy measures were implemented, the reality of an economic downturn and a decline in global risk appetite began to dominate asset pricing. Bitcoin retreated from its highs throughout the year, falling to around $7,000 by the end of the year. The market ultimately revised its previously optimistic expectations for liquidity and growth through a "realization-repricing" process. Therefore, it wasn't the interest rate cuts themselves that depressed prices in 2019, but rather the prevailing narrative of "rate cuts = passive confirmation of declining growth," leading to a rise-then-fall sequence.

2020 presented a completely different "abnormal" example. The liquidity shock triggered by the sudden outbreak of the pandemic prompted the Federal Reserve to implement two emergency interest rate cuts in March (a 50 basis point reduction on March 3rd and a 100 basis point reduction to zero on March 15th), coupled with a combination of measures such as unlimited quantitative easing and joint central bank swap lines to stabilize systemic risks. Around the peak of the impact, "Black Thursday" (March 12th), Bitcoin, along with risky assets, passively deleveraged and experienced a sharp single-day decline. It then quickly rebounded from the "policy bottom" of the dual fiscal and monetary stimulus. Because this round of market fluctuations was triggered by an exogenous public health event and a liquidity crisis, rather than the typical mild deceleration at the end of a business cycle, it lacks high-frequency comparability with 2025. The 2020 "first plunge, then rebound" reflected more the technical contraction of the dollar shortage and margin financing chain than a linear response to the interest rate cut itself.

Entering 2024, the historical trajectory has been rewritten once again. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve launched its current round of easing in September with a direct 50 basis point initial approach, and the subsequent dot plot continued to point to further easing this year. Politically, the US election thrust the issue of crypto/digital asset regulation and national strategy to the forefront. Market-wise, spot Bitcoin ETFs, fueled by both passive and active demand following regulatory implementation, saw record-breaking net inflows in a single day following the election results. These three factors combined to create a powerful hedge against the "sell-the-fact" trend of rate cuts. Far from experiencing the "cash-out correction" seen in 2019, prices have fluctuated and strengthened, supported by policy anchoring, policy-friendly narratives, and instrumental buying (ETFs), gradually completing the three-stage process of "narrative-driven, capital-driven, and price-confirmed." In other words, the experience of 2024 demonstrates that when structural incremental funds (ETFs) coexist with a strong narrative (policy-friendly/political cycle), the signal effect of rate cuts is significantly amplified and sustained, weakening the traditional concern that "rate cuts equal lower growth."

Based on the above three historical events, September 2025 is more likely a "conditionally constrained trigger point" than a direct catalyst in a single direction. First, from a tempo perspective, Bitcoin has entered a long period of consolidation since its mid-year high, with implied volatility declining, futures positions becoming neutral, and net inflows into ETFs significantly slowing, with some months even approaching record net outflows. This suggests that the "triple resonance of policy, narrative, and passive funds" seen in 2024 has yet to reappear. Second, from a structural perspective, fund flows into Ethereum ETFs and some major chains have diverged, suggesting that investors are reassessing the trade-off between "beta" and "structural opportunities." Third, from a macro perspective, the market is highly consistent with the September 25bp interest rate cut, with marginal variables shifting to "forward guidance and subsequent pacing after implementation," which are more likely to alter the path of duration, real interest rates, and liquidity expectations than the actual rate cut itself. These three factors together suggest that the September interest rate meeting is more likely to be a "calibration point for positions and sentiment," with its price impact depending on the path it takes.

Based on this, we divide the potential evolution of the market into two main paths in September 2025. If prices spontaneously rise before the meeting and momentum indicators strengthen and approach the upper critical range, the probability of a repeat of the historical "expectation trading-delivery" pattern increases: after the rate cut is implemented, short-term long position liquidation and a momentum reversal by CTA/quantitative traders could combine to trigger a rapid 3%-8% retracement, followed by a secondary direction determined by longer-term liquidity expectations and marginal funding. The core of this branch is "price first, funding later," allowing "easing" to shift from a positive factor to a profit-taking signal the moment it is implemented. On the contrary, if the price remains sideways or even declines mildly before the meeting, leverage and speculative net long positions are passively liquidated, and the market enters a state of "three lows" of "low holdings, low volatility, and low expectations", then the 25bp interest rate cut and the dovish forward guidance may become a "stabilizer" or even a "source of surprise", triggering an unexpected round of band rebound: the chain of ETF net outflow narrowing - stablecoin net issuance repairing - derivative basis warming up - spot premium recovery will be gradually completed, and prices will build a more solid medium-term platform in a "bottoming out - rising" manner.

Therefore, using the three-step approach of "historical retrospection - current characterization - scenario simulation," we have drawn three conclusions for execution: First, grasp "path dependency" rather than "event itself." Pre-meeting bullishness and pre-meeting sideways trading determine how the same news translates into two distinct price reactions. Second, tracking the marginal turning points of the "quantitative gate" is more important than judging "dove/hawkish": ETF subscriptions and redemptions and corporate coin purchases—refinancing—are themselves observable capital variables, and their explanatory power for market trends is often stronger than macroeconomic indicators. Third, respect "maturity stratification" and divide trading into two parallel legs: "tactical trading of policy week fluctuations" and "strategic positioning for Q4 liquidity trends." The former relies on position management and risk control, while the latter relies on forward-looking analysis of capital and policy cadence. History will not simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme; the "rise first and then fall" in 2019, the "collapse first and then V" in 2020, and the "continued strength after interest rate cuts" in 2024 together constitute the "conditional trigger" context in September 2025 - the key is not the "hammer falling", but what kind of positions and capital gates are pressed on both ends of the anvil when the hammer falls.

Given the current market consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, the potential paths forward for the crypto market can be categorized into three scenarios: positive, negative, and uncertain. First, from a positive perspective, the market has already almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, meaning the policy itself may not be a decisive catalyst. However, if accompanied by a series of positive marginal variables—such as a return to net inflows into ETFs, some institutions increasing their holdings after a price correction, or renewed demand from corporate investors—mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to experience a second wave of upward momentum. Research firm AInvest notes that a lowering interest rate curve implies a decline in risk-free rates, supporting the valuation of risky assets, particularly Bitcoin, where a "long-term holding" strategy prevails. Under this assumption, Bitcoin is expected to regain momentum, continuing the "policy bottom + structural funding resonance" pattern seen in 2024. CryptoSlate estimates that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 75–100 basis points cumulatively in 2025, this could unleash over $6 billion in incremental ETF demand into the Bitcoin market. Some prominent analysts are also optimistic. Fundstrat's Tom Lee, for example, has stated that if interest rate cuts combine with strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by year-end, while Ethereum is expected to reach $7,000 due to the resonance of on-chain narratives and liquidity. While these predictions are somewhat radical, they highlight the potential amplifying effect of policy and capital resonance on prices, especially given the context of extremely low market volatility and light positions. Once new capital inflows, price elasticity will be significantly amplified.

In summary, the impact of the September 2025 interest rate cut on the crypto market is not a one-way street, but rather depends on the interaction of price paths, capital flows, and macroeconomic variables. If the market remains stable before the meeting and net ETF inflows resume, there is hope for an unexpected rebound, even pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum to new highs. However, if there is a sharp rise before the meeting, the risk of "selling the truth" will be significant, and short-term volatility may be concentrated. In the medium and long term, the true determinant of the market's performance will still be the continued absorption capacity of ETFs, the recovery of corporate demand for cryptocurrency, and whether the macro environment allows for continued easing of liquidity. Under these constraints, investors must recognize both upside potential and downside risks. Strategically, they must maintain a balance between "tactical maneuvering during the policy week" and "strategic planning for fourth-quarter liquidity trends."

IV. Opportunities and Challenges Amidst Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, the crypto market's trajectory will be determined by three key factors: the macro liquidity environment, structural funding dynamics, and the industry's internal innovation narrative. Following the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, market attention will gradually shift to the continuity of its future policy path and whether funds will re-enter risky assets. In this context, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as pricing anchors, will play a decisive role. Around this core issue, the market faces both opportunities and challenges. From an opportunity perspective, the first is the return of macro liquidity and asset allocation demand. As the US economy enters a phase of slowing growth, the bond yield curve is gradually declining, investors' expectations of returns on risk-free assets are declining, and risk premiums across various asset classes are rising again. This provides room for Bitcoin's valuation to expand as a "store of value" and "liquidity-sensitive asset." If the Federal Reserve further cuts interest rates by the end of the year or even in early 2026, the global demand for capital reallocation could lead to more institutional capital entering the crypto market. Some investment banks and research institutions predict that under a 75-100 basis point easing path, Bitcoin ETFs could see annualized inflows of $60-80 billion, representing a solid medium- to long-term buying trend. Ethereum's role as crypto-financial infrastructure is becoming increasingly clear. If the regulatory environment remains open to spot ETH ETFs, this influx of funds is expected to propel its price beyond a new valuation range.

Secondly, corporate demand for cryptocurrency purchases and the continuation of balance sheet strategies are key factors. Since 2020, cases like MicroStrategy and Tesla have demonstrated the feasibility of allocating crypto assets to corporate treasuries, and after 2024, this model has become further institutionalized. With the expansion of corporate financing tools, such as convertible bonds and ATM financing mechanisms, the logic of companies directly allocating Bitcoin after raising funds in the capital market has been proven viable. If macro interest rates decline in 2025, reducing corporate financing costs, this could in turn incentivize a new cycle of "financing-cryptocurrency purchases-stock price repricing." This structural buying has been a new pillar of the crypto market over the past few years, and whether it can continue in the future will determine the stability of the Bitcoin price floor.

The third opportunity lies in the intersection of industry innovation and capital markets. The Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model will gradually take shape between 2024 and 2025. Its essence is to combine crypto asset reserves with traditional capital market financing tools, creating a "third type of institutional buying" similar to ETFs and corporate coin purchases. Solana's SOL Strategies has been approved for listing on the Nasdaq, marking a breakthrough in the integration of traditional capital markets and on-chain assets. Once DAT products scale, they will attract external capital to specific chains and ecosystems, providing the market with new alpha opportunities beyond beta. Also worth noting is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem. Tether, USDC, and even regional stablecoin projects are becoming "shadow dollars" by holding government bonds and cash management tools. Their scale expansion provides an additional liquidity buffer for the crypto market.

At the same time, challenges cannot be ignored. The first major challenge comes from the cyclical risk of "selling the facts." Even if the September rate cut triggers a short-term rebound, the market must face the reality that easing often implies weak growth and declining risk appetite. If the US job market continues to deteriorate and corporate earnings outlooks are revised downward, the sustainability of ETF and institutional buying may be hampered, and crypto assets could repeat the 2019 "high-to-low" trend after a short-term rally. This requires investors, even if bullish in the fourth quarter, to maintain flexibility in their positions and liquidity and avoid one-sided bets. The second challenge lies in the uncertainty of the path of inflation and the US dollar. If the CPI rebounds in the coming months and the core PCE remains around 3% for a long time, the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow the pace of rate cuts. If this leads to a temporary stabilization or even a rebound in the US dollar, Bitcoin's rationale for being a hedge against dollar depreciation will be weakened. At the same time, global macro risks (such as geopolitical friction and energy price fluctuations) could also lead to an unexpected resurgence in inflation, further limiting the room for liquidity easing. This misalignment between macro and market factors will be a potential source of volatility in the fourth quarter. The third challenge is the uncertainty of regulatory and policy risks. The progress of the US election and the candidates' attitudes toward the crypto industry will directly impact regulatory oversight. If regulatory approvals are delayed, new ETFs are shelved, or the crypto industry is subject to new regulatory restrictions, market sentiment will quickly shift to caution. Furthermore, regulatory developments in European and Asian markets are equally crucial. Policy decisions in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU regarding crypto asset custody, trading, and compliance could impact regional capital flows. A tightening regulatory environment could limit institutional capital inflows and reduce market resilience.

Overall, the crypto market after September 2025 stands at a complex crossroads. On the one hand, loose liquidity, corporate coin purchases, and new capital market products provide the market with long-term structural opportunities for upward movement; on the other hand, economic realities, inflation, and regulatory uncertainty pose periodic challenges. For investors, the best strategy for the next stage is not to bet on a single path, but to maintain a dynamic balance between opportunities and challenges: to take advantage of opportunities from macro easing and structural funds to plan for the medium and long term, and to guard against short-term fluctuations through risk hedging and position management. In other words, the market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is not a simple bull or bear market, but a complex pattern of "opportunities and risks coexisting, and volatility and trends intertwined." Only by maintaining flexibility and discipline can we capture true excess returns in this stage.

V. Conclusion

Looking back at the three interest rate cut cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin has exhibited distinct price trajectories under different macroeconomic environments and funding structures. This research report offers three core conclusions. First, the Fed's rate cut is almost fully priced in by the market. The 25bp cut itself will not change the trend. The true direction is determined by the price path before the meeting and the marginal flow of funds after the rate cut. If Bitcoin remains sideways or even declines modestly before the meeting, relieving market pressure, the rate cut may act as a stabilizer, even triggering an unexpected rebound. If the price has already risen significantly before the meeting, the probability of a "sell-the-fact" scenario increases significantly, and the price may face a rapid correction in the short term. Second, ETF and corporate cryptocurrency purchases are quantitative indicators of the medium-term market trend. If ETF net inflows return to positive growth and corporate refinancing purchases restart, then even if there are fluctuations on the day of the meeting, a "bottoming-up-breakout" trend is likely to form in the fourth quarter. Third, macroeconomic and policy uncertainties still pose potential risks.

In short, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September 2025 isn't a "single switch" for a bull or bear market, but rather a trigger point in complex market conditions. For investors, the key lies in dynamically adjusting their cognitive framework: neither viewing the rate cut as an automatic bullish signal nor overly fearing the risk of "selling the facts." Instead, they should maintain a balance between opportunities and challenges, leveraging the synergy between macroeconomic policies and structural funding to position for the medium and long term, while managing short-term risks through flexible positioning and hedging tools. Only in this way can investors maintain their bottom line and seize potential excess returns during the volatile cycle in the fourth quarter of 2025.