Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth indicator has reached its lowest levels on record, igniting speculation that a dramatic price surge could follow, as seen during late 2023.
BandWidth at historic lows
On monthly timeframes, the Bollinger BandWidth—which measures the percentage difference between upper and lower Bollinger Bands—has never been smaller.
According to macro strategist Gert van Lagen, each drop below a threshold of 100 on this metric has historically led to a sharp, parabolic BTC price move.
Van Lagen stated:
“Historically, every time this triggers, Bitcoin follows with a direct parabolic leg up.”
The most recent ‘green’ signal appeared in November 2023, after which BTC/USD price doubled within four months.
No “red” event was observed during the latest price drawdown, suggesting the bullish setup remains intact.
Market structure and trader sentiment
Despite the technical optimism, some traders remain unconvinced about the strength of the recovery. One trader, Roman, described the current scenario as:
“Still just a breakdown & retest scenario until proven otherwise. Still going to plan. Volume is low, MACD/RSI needed a reset on 1D and below, + we dropped 45k with no bounce. I wouldn’t get loud on calling a bottom quite yet.”
Key price levels for 2025
Bitcoin recently hit its highest price in over two weeks, nearing $94,000 amid speculation about a new US Federal Reserve chair.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that the market structure has technically turned bullish after posting a higher high and higher low, but emphasized:
“But to properly get this going I want to see it sustain above this current price area.”
The $93,500 level remains a significant reference for the 2025 yearly candle. According to analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin must close the month above this zone to secure a green yearly candle.
