Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company, Strategy (MSTR), has set up a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve, a move that onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant says signals preparation for a potential bitcoin bear market.
CryptoQuant highlights strategic shift
CryptoQuant stated in a recent report:
“Strategy appears to acknowledge a non-trivial probability of a deep or extended bitcoin drawdown. Establishing a 24-month USD buffer suggests an expectation that bitcoin could trade sideways or lower for an extended period, and that capital markets may be less receptive to future stock issuance.”
Strategy’s USD reserve, funded via its latest at-the-market share issuance, aims to support dividend payments and debt interest, covering at least 12 months initially, with plans to expand coverage to 24 months or more.
CryptoQuant noted that this dual approach—holding both USD and bitcoin—reduces the risk of forced bitcoin sales during downturns and marks a break from Strategy’s previous model of using equity and debt to purchase more bitcoin.
Reduced bitcoin buying and market implications
According to CryptoQuant, Strategy’s monthly bitcoin purchases have sharply declined, from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC bought so far in December.
This shift coincides with bitcoin’s largest price drawdown of 2025, as indicated by various bitcoin price history charts and technical indicators now signaling a bearish phase.
The firm’s Bull Score Index recently fell to zero, its most bearish reading since January 2022.
Flexible treasury management and risk mitigation
CryptoQuant commented that Strategy is no longer treating its bitcoin holdings as untouchable and is now prioritizing flexibility—including cash buffers, hedging, and selective monetization if needed.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, suggested that if the bear market persists, bitcoin could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 in the coming year, with sales of bitcoin considered a last resort after derivatives.
Mizuho’s outlook on Strategy
Investment bank Mizuho Securities maintained its outperform rating and $484 price target for Strategy, describing the USD reserve as a liquidity management tool rather than an indication of imminent bitcoin sales.
Mizuho noted that the reserve provides a buffer against forced asset sales, enabling Strategy to sustain operations for over three years at current bitcoin prices.
