Dogecoin has posted a 21% gain over the past week, driven by improved market sentiment and renewed investor confidence in the leading meme cryptocurrency. On-chain data indicates long-term holders are maintaining their positions rather than capitalizing on recent price appreciation. This pattern of accumulation suggests sustained upward momentum could continue.
What to Know:
- Dogecoin's liveliness metric dropped to 0.705, indicating long-term holders are not selling their positions despite recent gains
- The Hodler Net Position Change shows steady increases since September 7, with more coins moving into long-term storage wallets
- Technical indicators suggest DOGE could reach $0.33 but Money Flow Index at 80.29 warns of potential short-term correction
Supply Dynamics Signal Investor Confidence
The cryptocurrency's liveliness metric, which tracks the extent to which long-term holders spend their coins, has declined consistently over the past month according to Glassnode data. This measurement currently sits at 0.705, suggesting many long-held DOGE tokens have become dormant. The metric's steady decline indicates a sharp reduction in selling activity among committed investors.
Complementing this trend, Dogecoin's Hodler Net Position Change has recorded consistent increases since September 7.
This metric measures whether long-term investors are expanding or reducing their cryptocurrency exposure over specific periods. Positive readings indicate more coins are being transferred into hodler wallets rather than being sold on exchanges.
The accumulation pattern reduces available supply in circulation while reflecting confidence from committed investors. Glassnode defines this behavior as conviction-led holding, which historically supports sustained price appreciation in cryptocurrency markets.
Technical Analysis Points To Resistance Levels
The ongoing accumulation trend strengthens the case for continued upward price movement toward key resistance levels. If current patterns persist, DOGE could surpass the $0.29 resistance threshold and advance toward $0.33, a price level last achieved in January 2024.
However, technical indicators present mixed signals for near-term price action.
The Money Flow Index, which combines price and trading volume to measure buying and selling pressure, currently reads 80.29 on daily charts.
This momentum indicator typically ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 80 considered overbought territory.
When the MFI enters overbought conditions, it suggests buying pressure may be reaching peak levels. Such readings often precede short-term corrections or price consolidation periods rather than continued upward momentum. If this technical warning materializes, DOGE faces the risk of declining below the $0.2583 support level.
Market Context And Key Terms
Cryptocurrency liveliness measures how actively long-term holders are spending their coins relative to their total holdings. Lower readings indicate dormant coins, while higher values suggest active trading or profit-taking behavior. The Hodler Net Position Change tracks the net flow of cryptocurrency into or out of long-term storage addresses, providing insight into investor sentiment and accumulation patterns.
Money Flow Index serves as a momentum oscillator that incorporates both price movement and trading volume to assess market conditions. Values above 80 typically signal overbought markets where selling pressure may increase, while readings below 20 indicate oversold conditions where buying opportunities may emerge.
Closing Thoughts
Dogecoin's recent rally reflects strong holder conviction as evidenced by declining liveliness metrics and increased long-term accumulation. While technical indicators suggest potential for further gains toward $0.33, overbought conditions warn of possible near-term corrections that could test support levels around $0.25.
