Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $3.4 million by 2028, provided a specific U.S. monetary policy is adopted under the Trump administration.
Arthur Hayes says #Bitcoin to $3.4 million by 2028 ? pic.twitter.com/PE0cuCrXuk
— BitcoinXpress (@Saylor_Archive) September 23, 2025
Hayes’ bold forecast is based on the potential introduction of Yield Curve Control (YCC) by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a policy tool where the central bank directly manages government bond yields.
The Model Behind the Bitcoin Prediction
According to Hayes, his model links Bitcoin’s price trajectory to credit expansion. He argues that if the Fed and commercial banks expand credit creation by $15.2 trillion by 2028, it would propel Bitcoin to the multi-million-dollar mark.
At the time of his forecast on September 23, Bitcoin was trading between $105,000 and $115,000, levels Hayes sees as evidence of growing institutional inflows and macroeconomic support for digital assets.
Economic and Political Drivers
Hayes highlighted several factors that could make YCC under a Trump administration more likely:
Federal Reserve appointments – Steven Mnuchin’s potential nomination to the Fed board could increase political pressure for looser monetary policy.
Negative real interest rates – Under YCC, real yields would likely remain in negative territory, encouraging capital flows into alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
Historical precedents – Hayes pointed to YCC’s use during World War II and Bitcoin’s resilience during the pandemic as evidence that the policy could push BTC to new extremes.
Geopolitical uncertainty – Eroding trust in traditional safe-haven assets may accelerate Bitcoin adoption as a global hedge.
Hayes concluded that under the right policy environment, Bitcoin could realistically reach $3.4 million by 2028, positioning it as a cornerstone of the new financial order.
