Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has sounded the alarm on a looming threat: quantum computing. While still years away from mass deployment, Buterin warns that the technology poses a real risk to global cryptography, estimating a 20% chance that quantum computers could break modern security systems by 2030.
NEW: $ETH | @VitalikButerin cites a 20% chance that quantum computers will break modern cryptography before the end of 2030. pic.twitter.com/phz11xUCzm
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) August 28, 2025
In a recent post, Buterin stressed that progress in quantum research is advancing faster than many realize. If there is a sufficiently powerful machine emerging, it could dismantle cryptographic pillars like RSA and ECDSA—algorithms that secure not only Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also banks, governments, encrypted messaging, and even critical infrastructure.
? A Threat Beyond Crypto
Quantum computers harness the laws of quantum physics to solve problems impossible for today’s machines. Algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, crack massive cryptographic keys within seconds.
If these defenses collapse, hackers could:
Forge financial transactions
Hijack digital identities
Drain crypto wallets
Target hospitals, energy grids, and satellites
The risk extends well beyond cryptocurrencies—global finance, defense systems, and everyday digital life could all be destabilized.
? The Race for Post-Quantum Security
Fortunately, researchers are already racing to build post-quantum cryptography—systems designed to resist quantum-level attacks. Ethereum is actively exploring new cryptographic solutions, and the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is reviewing next-generation algorithms that may replace current systems within years.
Bitcoin developers are also evaluating alternative cryptographic schemes, though Buterin warns that a global transition would be complex, requiring upgrades to billions of connected systems and services.
⚖️ A Measured but Urgent Risk
Buterin acknowledges that quantum computers capable of breaking RSA at scale do not yet exist. Major technical hurdles remain, including stabilizing qubits and solving error correction challenges.
Still, he argues that preparation is critical:
“It’s unlikely catastrophe strikes tomorrow, but we must prepare now to avoid being caught off guard.”
Ultimately, the stakes go beyond Ethereum or Bitcoin. If an adversary gains control of quantum computing first, they would wield an unprecedented digital weapon capable of reshaping global power balances.
The race toward post-quantum security has begun. The next decade will decide whether the world is ready.
