XRP price today is holding steady above $2.84, despite recent fluctuations that saw the token dip from $2.90 earlier in the session.

According to Brave New Coin data, the current XRP price sits at $2.84, marking a slight 24-hour decline of 0.6%. Analysts point out that the asset continues to respect a critical support zone at $2.75 while facing resistance at $2.81, defined by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Market watchers say these levels could determine XRP’s next move. The $3 mark remains both a technical and psychological barrier, with institutional inflows tied to potential XRP ETF approvals seen as a decisive catalyst in the weeks ahead.

Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals

From a technical perspective, XRP remains in a consolidation phase. The token is currently trading above its 200-day SMA of $2.59 but below the 50-day SMA at $2.96. Indicators remain mixed: the Fear and Greed Index sits at a neutral 50, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 47.16, and volatility is moderate at 3.66%.

XRP’s symmetrical triangle signals a potential bullish move to $3.60 and beyond. Source: @SEymarde via X

Chart patterns show XRP forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframe. Analysts suggest that a breakout above $3 could unlock bullish momentum, targeting levels between $3.60 and $4.

Historical October Performance: A Mixed Record

Despite optimism around a potential Q4 rally, historical data paint a cautious picture. From 2014 to 2024, XRP logged losses in several October periods, including -16.7% in 2024 and -22.9% in 2018. Over the same timeframe, however, other years posted double-digit gains, such as 16.9% in 2021 and 15.1% in 2019.

XRP’s October outlook depends on $2.75 support and $2.81 resistance, with ETF hopes and inflows challenging its mixed seasonal trend. Source: @SEymarde via X

This inconsistency contrasts with Bitcoin, which often benefits from seasonal “Uptober” rallies. Analysts attribute XRP’s uneven history to lingering effects of the SEC lawsuit and investor hesitancy surrounding regulatory risk. Still, changing market dynamics could alter the trajectory this year.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Speculation

Speculation around spot cryptocurrency ETFs has intensified following recent regulatory approvals for Bitcoin funds. A 2024 study published on ScienceDirect suggested that ETF launches improve liquidity and legitimize digital assets, often sparking price rallies. While a U.S. decision on the 21Shares Core XRP Trust is expected by October 18, 2025, no formal approval has yet been granted.

Despite this uncertainty, Ripple’s asset has already attracted institutional interest. Earlier this year, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch marked a notable milestone, though analysts say the token has yet to fully consolidate the benefits.

Outlook: Can Ripple XRP Defy Historical Trends?

The broader sentiment around Ripple XRP news today remains cautiously optimistic. If institutional inflows accelerate ahead of potential ETF approvals, analysts argue that XRP could push past its $3 resistance. Longer-term XRP price predictions for 2025 range between $3.50 and $5, assuming regulatory clarity and favorable market conditions.

XRP was trading at around $2.84, down 0.61% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin

However, the risk of repeating past October declines remains. Without new inflows, XRP could struggle to sustain its current levels. The price of XRP is walking a fine line between seasonal weakness and powerful new catalysts, making the next two weeks critical.