Robinhood Markets Inc. is preparing to take its prediction markets business international. The trading platform has started talks with regulators in the UK and other countries about launching the service outside the United States.

The move comes after massive success in the American market. CEO Vlad Tenev announced on September 29, 2025, that the platform crossed 4 billion event contracts traded. The company started offering election contracts in October 2024, then formally launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025. More than 2 billion of those contracts happened in the third quarter of 2025 alone.

Record Trading Volumes Drive Stock Surge

The prediction markets announcement sent Robinhood’s stock soaring. Shares jumped more than 12% on September 30, giving the company a market value of around $108 billion. The stock has climbed over 260% in 2025.

Source: @vladTenev

Wall Street took notice. Needham raised its price target to $145 from $120, calling Robinhood the most advanced platform working to become a one-stop financial shop. Piper Sandler and Citi also lifted their targets, showing growing confidence in the company’s direction.

The business already generates significant income. Analysts estimate the prediction markets segment is running at more than $200 million in annual revenue based on September activity. Robinhood charges $0.01 per contract, plus exchange fees, creating a steady revenue stream as trading volumes grow.

Breaking Into International Markets

JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president of futures and international, revealed the company has begun discussions with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. The goal is figuring out how to structure prediction markets products for local regulations.

“It’s a swap here in the United States,” Mackenzie explained in an interview. “So the question would be where is swap oversight, let’s say in the UK? That’s a question that we’ve been asking the FCA, how do we work it?”

The challenge is classification. American regulators treat prediction markets as futures contracts, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. European regulators often view them as gambling products, creating a regulatory puzzle Robinhood needs to solve.

The company already operates in the UK and European Union since 2023, offering stock and cryptocurrency trading. This existing presence gives Robinhood relationships with regulators and experience navigating international rules.

Mackenzie confirmed the global ambition: “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go.”

How Prediction Markets Work

Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025. The platform lets users buy and sell contracts on future events, from football games to economic data releases.

Each contract costs between $0.01 and $0.99, representing the probability an event will happen. A contract priced at $0.65 suggests a 65% chance the event occurs. If you’re right, the contract pays $1 when the event settles. If wrong, it expires worthless.

The platform started with Federal Reserve rate decisions and college basketball tournaments. By August, Robinhood added professional and college football contracts, tapping into America’s most popular sport. Categories now include sports, economics, cryptocurrency, and cultural events.

Robinhood partners with KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange, to offer these contracts. The setup separates Robinhood from offshore platforms by staying within US regulatory frameworks.

Competition Heats Up

The prediction markets space is getting crowded fast. Polymarket, previously banned from US operations, received regulatory clearance to return. The crypto-based platform acquired an exchange license and is targeting American users with football betting contracts.

Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket in trading volume, processing $728 million in bets during one week in September. Football accounts for over 70% of Kalshi’s activity. Robinhood users represent 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s daily trading, according to analyst estimates.

Traditional gambling companies are joining the rush. FanDuel announced a partnership with CME Group to launch prediction markets. Underdog Sports teamed with Crypto.com to offer sports contracts in 16 states. Even DraftKings is exploring options.

The stakes are massive. The US sports betting industry generated $13.7 billion in revenue last year. Industry projections suggest that number could hit $39 billion by 2030. Prediction markets want a piece of that growth.

Recent funding rounds show investor appetite. Polymarket raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation in June 2025. One day later, Kalshi secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation. Reports suggest Polymarket received a takeover offer valuing the company at $9 billion, while Kalshi may raise money at a $5 billion valuation.

Why Overseas Expansion Makes Sense

International expansion gives Robinhood breathing room as competition intensifies at home. The company built its brand on making financial markets accessible to everyday people. Prediction markets fit that mission.

The business helps Robinhood reduce dependence on stock trading commissions. Event contracts provide transaction fees regardless of market conditions. Combined with cryptocurrency, futures, and other products, the company builds multiple income sources.

Users abroad have shown interest, according to Robinhood. Europe and the UK represent major potential markets where the company already has regulatory approval for other products.

The regulatory path won’t be simple. Some European countries strictly regulate gambling, while others maintain looser frameworks. Each market requires separate negotiations and compliance work. But the potential rewards appear worth the effort.

The Bottom Line

Robinhood’s prediction markets business went from zero to 4 billion contracts in less than a year. That growth caught Wall Street’s attention and pushed the stock to new highs. Now the company wants to replicate that success internationally.

Success depends on convincing foreign regulators these products are financial instruments, not gambling. With talks already underway in the UK and experience operating overseas, Robinhood has a head start. But competitors aren’t standing still, and the race for global prediction markets is just beginning.