Bittensor (TAO) price has gained nearly 14% in the past 24 hours, extending its weekly rise to about 40%. A clear pattern is forming on the chart — one that, if confirmed, could push the TAO price back toward its previous all-time high formed last year.

But a critical risk lingers in the background. It could decide whether this flag actually takes off or breaks before lift-off.

Whales Back the Rally as One Metric Hits Record High

On-chain data shows that whales are still in control of the TAO price direction.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — an indicator that tracks money flow from large wallets — has climbed to 0.40, its highest level since TAO’s Binance listing.

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Bittensor CMF Hitting Record Highs: TradingView

Despite a brief dip on October 7, CMF has been rising steadily since early September, showing consistent whale inflows. Even during the October 10 market crash, large holders continued buying instead of exiting.

This marks the strongest spot accumulation phase since Bittensor’s debut. Whales appear unfazed by market noise, suggesting the spot market is being powered by conviction rather than short-term speculation.

Leverage Build-Up Could Break the Pole

While spot data stays firm (courtesy of big wallets), derivatives show a risk that could spoil the rally. Perpetual futures volume has jumped from $813 million on October 13 to over $1.49 billion on October 14, an 83% increase in just a day. And most of the volume is betting long.

TAO Derivatives Risk: Glassnode

On Bitget alone, long positions total about $22.33 million, while shorts stand at $9.06 million, creating more than a 100% long bias. That imbalance shows traders are heavily betting on the upside.

Long Bias Could Hit TAO Price Hard: Coinglass

The problem is that if the TAO price corrects even slightly, these leveraged longs could be liquidated (long squeeze) — causing a fast drop.

It’s a clear split: whales are accumulating on the spot side, but aggressive leverage could undo that progress in one sharp move.

TAO Price Pattern Faces Its Breakout Test

The 4-hour chart shows the Bittensor price forming a bullish flag — a short consolidation after a strong rally. The pole reflects the recent uptrend, while the flag represents the current consolidation before a potential breakout. Based on the pole’s projection, the TAO price might have the potential to hit $797, crossing its previous all-time high.

While the daily chart captures the broader price rise, the 4-hour chart highlights the finer structure of the flag — showing how momentum is cooling after the pole and forming a tight consolidation that could soon resolve in either direction.

TAO Price Fractal: TradingView

The TAO price trades near $463, facing resistance at $469, the key flag breakout trigger. If it clears that, the pattern projects up to 73% upside (mentioned earlier), opening targets at $519, $665, and the previous price peak of $757 and beyond.

Bittensor (TAO) Price Analysis: TradingView

If the rally fails, $423 and $381 act as support. A close below $381 would invalidate the bullish flag, confirming that the pole has snapped before a breakout.

For now, Bittensor sits at a critical point. Spot whales are buying, leverage traders are crowding in, and the $469 level will decide who wins.