Contrary to the anticipated Uptober rally, Bitcoin has been going sideways, with the unexpected “Black Friday” correction and the macroeconomic uncertainties this week. This has shaken the Uptober effect speculations, making new investors skeptical about investing in the asset.
This article will analyze the current market scenario of Bitcoin and correlate it with the historical October movements to forecast BTC’s movements throughout October 2025. Without further delay, let’s get started.
Historical Data: Bitcoin (BTC) Mostly Bullish in October
From the inception period itself, October has been bullish for Bitcoin, with just two exceptions: 2018 and 2014. In all other years, Bitcoin generated profit for the October traders, with 2017 and 2021 providing maximum returns.
| Year | October Movement |
|---|---|
| 2025 | – |
| 2024 | 10.76% |
| 2023 | 28.52% |
| 2022 | 5.56% |
| 2021 | 39.93% |
| 2020 | 27.70% |
| 2019 | 10.17% |
| 2018 | -3.83% |
| 2017 | 47.81% |
| 2016 | 14.71% |
| 2015 | 33.49% |
| 2014 | -12.95% |
| 2013 | 60.79% |
2025 Uptober Mirrors BTC’s 2021 and 2017 Bull Run
If you examine the historical chart data, a consistent weekly increase throughout October can be observed. There were no significant corrections throughout the month, and each week displayed a steady rise. In both 2017 and 2021, the “ignition month” before the final euphoric rise in Q4 was October.
Following a bearish September, both 2017 and 2021 cycles started to regain momentum. In 2017, BTC increased by almost 36% in the first week as investors recovered their trust following concerns about the China ban. In 2021, the asset increased by almost 14% due to the anticipation of a U.S. Bitcoin ETF approval. The following weeks also exhibited bullishness. A detailed table is provided below.
| Timeframe | 2017 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Oct 1–7) | Open: $4,341.05;Close: $5,754.44 | Open: $43,000; Close: $48,000 |
| Week 2 | Open: $5,754.44; Close: $5,899.74 | Open: $48,000; Close: $55,000 |
| Week 3 | Open: $5,899.74; Close: $6,153.85 | Open: $55,000; Close: $60,000 |
| Week 4 | Open: $6,153.85; Close: $6,468.40 | Open: $60,000; Close: $61,318 |
What Does This Mean for October 2025? Bitcoin Price Forecast
The 2017 and 2021 October bullish trends of BTC have many parallels to the 2025 October movements. Bitcoin is currently recovering from September bearishness, and the ETF inflows are stabilising. The forecast based on historical data and technical analysis suggests that the third week of October 2025 may witness the continuation of the current sideways movement.
However, Bitcoin may rise from the current $111K – $112K, and surge to new all-time highs by the conclusion of the 3rd week of October, with a projected value of $126,856 by October 22nd. The final week may witness a slight downtrend, which will pave the way for a possible cycle peak close to late Q4 2025. The day-wise forecast till October 31st is provided below.
- Oct 17, 2025 – $ 112,657
- Oct 18, 2025 – $ 115,659
- Oct 19, 2025 – $ 119,398
- Oct 20, 2025 – $ 123,325
- Oct 21, 2025 – $ 126,414
- Oct 22, 2025 – $ 126,856
- Oct 23, 2025 – $ 124,288
- Oct 24, 2025 – $ 122,530
- Oct 25, 2025 – $ 123,113
- Oct 26, 2025 – $ 124,046
- Oct 27, 2025 – $ 124,701
- Oct 28, 2025 – $ 124,553
- Oct 29, 2025 – $ 123,984
- Oct 30, 2025 – $ 123,450
- Oct 31, 2025 – $ 123,063
Disclaimer: These crypto price forecasts are based on predictive modeling and should not be considered financial advice.
The Bottom Line: Will Bitcoin Continue Its Uptober Rally?
The price prediction based on technicals, historical data, and market sentiment shows that Bitcoin will continue its October rally, potentially making new all-time highs. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin is still a highly volatile asset, and an unexpected reversal is also possible. So, it is better if you do your own research to find the entry and exit points that suit you. Always DYOR!
At present, Bitcoin is trading for $111,530, around 8% down from the past week.
