Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.

Shares of this oil and natural gas company have returned -2.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.7% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, to which Exxon belongs, has lost 4.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Revisions to Earnings Estimates

Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Exxon is expected to post earnings of $1.78 per share, indicating a change of -7.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3.6% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $6.78 points to a change of -13% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +1.4%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.62 indicates a change of +12.5% from what Exxon is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +1.7%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Exxon.