US President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao marks the second major act of clemency toward a prominent crypto figure since he took office. And it has been less than a year.

This latest development has sparked speculation over whether Sam Bankman-Fried could be next.

Applause, Alarm, and a Surge in Speculation

The news of Trump’s pardoning of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) today has caused various reactions, ranging from applause to alarm. While some crypto community members welcomed the news, critics raised red flags about potential conflicts of interest.

What’s clear is that Trump’s latest pardon has sparked speculation about who might be next to benefit.

Voters on popular prediction market Polymarket are already placing their bets that FTX exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple counts of fraud, may be next in line.

Speculators Boost SBF’s Release Chances in Latest Poll. Source: Polymarket.

In the past five hours, several polls on prediction markets saw the odds of SBF being released from custody before the end of this year surge from 4% to 16%.

While the odds may seem low, the profiles of the crypto figures Trump has pardoned so far could make clemency for SBF appear more plausible.

A Tale of Two Pardons

Trump’s pardon of CZ may seem less surprising when viewed alongside his earlier decision to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht just two days after taking office, especially considering the far more serious charges Ulbricht faced.

Through Silk Road, Ulbricht facilitated anonymous transactions of illicit goods using Bitcoin. 

In 2015, he was convicted on multiple counts, including narcotics distribution, money laundering, computer hacking, and operating a continuing criminal enterprise. He was ultimately sentenced to two life terms plus 40 years without the possibility of parole.

During Ulbricht’s sentencing, the judge explicitly justified a life term, citing the scale of the drug trade that was born out of Silk Road, along with the indirect deaths that it caused.

By contrast, CZ pleaded guilty to a single count of violating the Bank Secrecy Act and other regulatory non-compliance. In April 2024, a court sentenced him to four months in federal prison.

Though serious, the harm caused by CZ’s crimes involved regulatory failures rather than direct theft of customer funds.

Considering the outcomes of both trials, the scale of SBF’s crimes falls somewhere in the middle. 

SBF’s Crimes and the Politics of Clemency

A jury sentenced Sam Bankman-Fried in March 2024 on multiple charges, including wire fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy. The scope of his wrongdoing was transcendental. 

FTX misused hundreds of millions, if not billions, in customer funds, resulting in widespread investor and lender losses and the collapse of one of the crypto industry’s largest exchanges.

To a certain degree, SBF’s sentencing was considered lenient. Prosecutors originally sought a 40 to 50-year prison sentence for his conviction.

Nevertheless, while the financial damage caused by SBF was immense, many courts have regarded his crimes as less severe than Ulbricht’s.

The collapse of FTX had vast economic repercussions, but Silk Road’s activities extended into violent crimes, organized trafficking, and drug distribution, posing a far greater threat to public safety.

With Ulbricht’s pardon setting a precedent, SBF’s chances of receiving clemency from Trump appear stronger. Combined with the President’s effort to position himself as a crypto ally, the move fits within a broader political strategy.

Meanwhile, SBF’s parents have been actively lobbying for his release on Capitol Hill, further boosting his prospects.

However, significant obstacles still stand in the way of a potential pardon.

The Case Against Forgiveness

SBF’s crimes were among the most consequential financial scandals in modern history. 

The sheer scale of his actions, spanning global jurisdictions and involving countless victims, makes his case far more severe than the violations seen in other pardoned crypto executives like CZ. 

From a public perception standpoint, extending clemency to someone convicted of such crimes would be a tough sell.

Unlike other figures who struck plea deals, SBF went to trial and was convicted on all counts. His refusal to accept responsibility and courtroom demeanor, widely perceived as lacking remorse, have left a lasting impression on the judiciary and the public. 

In contrast, CZ and other pardoned executives pleaded guilty, cooperated with authorities, and portrayed themselves as reformers—an image SBF has struggled to cultivate. 

Adding to the complexity, SBF’s political history could work against him. Before his downfall, he and his network were significant donors to political groups aligned with the Democratic Party. 

Given Trump’s pragmatic approach to loyalty and optics, he may be less inclined to show leniency toward SBF. As BeInCrypto has previously reported, public perception has often influenced Trump’s decisions on pardons.

This backdrop may make it unlikely he would risk political capital on someone viewed as part of the opposition.

The President’s previous gestures toward the crypto industry indicate openness to the idea. However, when it comes to SBF, the costs could easily outweigh the potential benefits.