Bitcoin’s traditionally bullish October, often dubbed “Uptober,” is at risk of turning negative for the first time since 2018.

As of now, bitcoin is trading 2.3% below its monthly opening price, according to data from CoinGlass, with just days left to recover before the monthly close.

October price struggles

After briefly reaching new all-time highs early in the month, bitcoin saw a sharp reversal and has since been confined to a tight trading range between $107,000 and $111,500.

The average October return since 2013 has been 20%, which would require bitcoin to climb significantly to end the month on a positive note.

If the current trend continues and bitcoin finishes October 4% or more down, it will mark the worst October performance in twelve years. For context, October 2014 recorded a 13% loss, while other bull market years like 2013, 2017, and 2021 saw gains of 60%, 50%, and 40%, respectively.

A market commentator summarized the sentiment:

THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER. The only worse one was 2014 (-13%). 2013: +60%; 2017: +50%; 2021: +40%; 2025: -4%

Bull market context

Fresh analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson underscores that the current bull market is diverging from historical patterns.

Peterson noted that typically:

“60% of Bitcoin’s full-year performance occurs after October 3rd.”

Fed decision looms

Attention is now turning to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on October 29.

Some analysts believe the Fed could announce the end of quantitative tightening, potentially shifting market conditions in favor of bitcoin and other risk assets.

A change in the Fed’s monetary stance could have significant implications for price action through the end of the year.