A fierce debate has broken out among macro analysts over the credibility of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Experts say this key economic metric is being overused to predict business cycles and Bitcoin market tops.
The clash highlights a growing divide between traditional economic modeling and modern financial conditions-driven analysis, with ripple effects reaching deep into crypto market forecasting.
ISM Debate Splits Macro Analysts as Crypto Traders Reassess the 2026 Bitcoin Peak
CFA Julien Bittel, a macro strategist at Global Macro Investor (GMI), dismisses many of Wall Street’s go-to indicators as outdated or misinterpreted.
“Delinquency rates, ISM, PMIs, job openings, retail sales — none of these are leading indicators…Everything is downstream to changes in financial conditions,” Bittel wrote.
Bittel explained that GMI’s proprietary US Coincident Business Cycle Index integrates forward-moving elements within the data, including early employment signals, and that it began turning higher in mid-2022, months before ISM and other metrics rebounded.
According to Bittel, the labor market’s gradual cooling is actually a positive sign, paving the way for lower rates and renewed economic expansion.
However, macro strategist Henrik Zeberg presents a contrary opinion, calling for caution around treating survey-based indicators as reality.
“ISM is NOT the business cycle or the economy. It is a damn survey! In July 2022, many called for a recession based on the same GMI score. We did not see one. Maybe the score needs calibration?” Zeberg wrote.
Their public disagreement births a wider discussion about how much weight the ISM PMI still deserves. The index measures US manufacturing activity and has remained below the neutral 50 mark for more than seven months, signaling contraction. However, it has not coincided with a full-blown recession.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Source: Trading Economics
ISM-Bitcoin Correlation Suggests a Longer Bull Market Could Extend Into 2026
Historically, the ISM’s moves have also correlated with major Bitcoin cycle tops, a connection first popularized by macro investor Raoul Pal.
That correlation has now captured the attention of the crypto community. Analysts like Colin Talks Crypto and Lark Davis argue that the ISM’s prolonged stagnation could mean Bitcoin’s bull market will stretch far beyond its typical four-year rhythm.
“All three past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this index,” Colin noted.
The analyst suggested that a cycle top could be mid-2026 for the Bitcoin price if the relationship holds. Entrepreneur and Bitcoin investor Davis agreed, noting that while everyone expects a Q4 2025 peak, the ISM has not shown real expansion yet, meaning this cycle could go way deeper into 2026.
A weaker ISM often implies delayed economic recovery and longer market expansions. Despite current headwinds from tariffs to sluggish global demand, the extended contraction phase may lengthen the broader business cycle rather than end it.
While this could translate to a more gradual, durable uptrend for the Bitcoin price, it warns against expecting an early peak as the 2025–2026 cycle debate shapes into a consequential narrative linking traditional economics and digital assets.
