Solana has struggled to maintain momentum above the $200 price level despite multiple recovery attempts in recent days. The cryptocurrency trades at $197 as selling pressure mounts, with on-chain data revealing sharp profit-taking and increased exchange deposits that signal continued downward risk for the digital asset.

What to Know:

• Solana's supply in profit surged 18 percentage points in 48 hours while price gained less than 5%, indicating heavy concentration of holders near $200
• Approximately 1.5 million SOL tokens worth nearly $300 million moved to exchanges over 10 days, suggesting imminent selling
• The cryptocurrency must break decisively above $200 and hold $213 to reverse bearish momentum, or risks falling to $183 or lower

Profit Volatility Reveals Weak Support

The supply of Solana held at a profit has swung wildly in recent sessions. Data from Glassnode shows that between 52% and 70% of circulating SOL shifted into profitable territory within a two-day span, marking an 18 percentage point increase. The price during that same period climbed less than 5%.

This mismatch points to a clustering of buyers around the $200 threshold. When Solana dips below that mark, many of these positions quickly turn unprofitable. The result is renewed selling as holders exit to preserve gains or limit losses.

That pattern has repeated itself several times in recent weeks.

Each attempt to break above $200 has faltered as profit-taking intensifies. The level now functions as both a psychological barrier and a technical ceiling that has proven difficult to clear.

Market observers note that this type of volatility in profitability metrics often precedes periods of consolidation or decline. Without a broader base of support at higher price levels, Solana remains vulnerable to sharp reversals when sentiment shifts.

Exchange Deposits Signal Bearish Intent

Solana holders have moved roughly 1.5 million tokens to centralized exchanges over the past 10 days, according to blockchain tracking data. At current prices, that represents approximately $300 million in value repositioned for potential sale.

Rising exchange balances typically indicate that investors are preparing to liquidate rather than hold for long-term gains.

The trend reflects broader caution in the cryptocurrency market, where recent rallies have failed to generate sustained buying interest.

The flow of tokens onto trading platforms increases available supply and heightens the risk of cascading sell-offs if demand weakens. Unless deposit rates slow or fresh capital enters the market, downward pressure on Solana's price is likely to persist in the near term. This selling activity aligns with the profit volatility observed in on-chain metrics. Holders who accumulated near $200 appear unwilling to weather further declines, opting instead to exit positions while still above key support zones.

Understanding Key Cryptocurrency Metrics

Supply in profit measures the percentage of tokens currently trading above their acquisition price. Sharp changes in this metric can signal shifts in holder behavior, particularly when price movements are modest.

A rising percentage during flat or declining prices often means investors bought at similar levels and face collective decisions about when to sell.

Exchange balance tracks the total amount of a cryptocurrency held on trading platforms. Increases suggest preparation for sales, while decreases indicate accumulation in private wallets. This metric helps analysts gauge short-term sentiment and potential price pressure.

These data points provide insight into market psychology that price charts alone cannot capture. They reveal the behavior of holders and the concentration of positions at specific price levels, offering clues about where support or resistance may strengthen or collapse.

Price Must Clear $200 to Reverse Course

Solana trades at $197, just below the resistance that has capped recent rallies. The cryptocurrency needs to establish $200 as a floor rather than a ceiling to attract renewed buying interest and shift momentum.

If selling accelerates, the token could fall to $192 initially, with further declines toward $183 or $175 possible.

Those levels represent areas where buyers have stepped in during previous corrections, though their strength remains uncertain given current market conditions.

A move above $200 that extends to $213 would invalidate the bearish case.

That scenario would require sustained buying volume and a slowdown in exchange deposits. Such a breakout could draw in momentum traders and improve sentiment across the broader altcoin market.

Closing Thoughts

Solana's near-term direction depends largely on whether current holders choose to sell into weakness or accumulate at lower levels. The concentration of positions around $200 creates instability that could resolve in either direction. Until exchange deposit rates decline and profit-taking stabilizes, the cryptocurrency faces headwinds that limit upside potential and increase the likelihood of testing lower support zones.