Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has suggested that bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again if current positive macroeconomic and geopolitical trends continue through the week.

Easing trade tensions lift sentiment

Kendrick pointed to improving trade relations between the U.S. and China as a key factor in lifting market sentiment.

Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a potential delay in China’s rare-earth export controls and revealed China’s intention to purchase substantial quantities of U.S. soybeans, in exchange for the U.S. dropping its 100% tariff threat.

Final details are expected after President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping meet in South Korea on Thursday.

Bitcoin-gold ratio rebounds

The bitcoin-gold ratio has climbed back to pre-October 10 levels, when headlines about tariffs triggered a sharp market selloff. Kendrick said:

“I will watch for this ratio to break back above 30 to signal an end to such fear.”

ETF inflows and halving theory questioned

Kendrick also highlighted the importance of renewed inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, noting that over $2 billion exited gold ETFs last week.

He suggested that if even half of those outflows move into bitcoin ETFs, it would be a strong sign of improving sentiment.

A new all-time high in bitcoin, Kendrick argued, would:

“signify the death knell for those hanging onto the halving cycle as a reason for Bitcoin prices to peak now.”

Policy and earnings outlook

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to bring another rate cut, which Kendrick views as positive for bitcoin.

Additionally, major U.S. tech companies and bitcoin-related firms such as Coinbase and Strategy are expected to report earnings this week.

Kendrick concluded:

“If this week goes well, bitcoin may NEVER go below $100,000 again.”