Bitcoin’s soaring price is making it increasingly difficult for average retail investors to participate, according to a new report from 10x Research. This trend has raised concerns that the current bull market cycle may not extend beyond the historical four-year pattern.

Diminishing returns and market maturity

10x Research argued that Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns as it matures.

The firm stated in its latest analysis:

“While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”

With Bitcoin only 16 years old, the firm cautioned that drawing “firm statistical conclusions” about long-term cycles remains questionable.

Different predictions on cycle top

Despite models such as stock-to-flow forecasting a possible $1 million Bitcoin price, 10x Research projects a more modest cycle top of $125,000 by year-end.

This is notably lower than Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick’s forecast of $200,000 for 2025, and his even more bullish $500,000 call by 2028.

10x Research previously used similar methodology to accurately predict the 2022 bear market bottom.

Institutional and smart money trends

Data from blockchain intelligence firm Nansen shows that so-called ‘smart money’ traders are increasing their Bitcoin exposure, even as it becomes less accessible for smaller buyers.

The report concludes that Bitcoin’s growing inaccessibility for retail may threaten the traditional bull market extension.