The trading profile of BTC changed since October 10, with evidence of smaller whale-sized orders. Retail remains active, driving short-term volatility.
The BTC market saw an outflow of large-scale orders, both on the spot market and on derivative platforms. Previously, high-profile whales and buyers were active almost daily, linked to ETF buying, treasury companies, or large anonymous holders. The current overall whale activity data showed up to 40,000 BTC was distributed between October 2 and October 27, diminishing the BTC spot positions of larger whales.
More recent data showed DAT buyers are no longer a big factor on the market. Buying BTC for treasuries, even small ones, has fallen to a one-year low.
ETH purchases have retained some of their previous levels, but market analysts noted buyers are more cautious.
Even Bitfinex whale orders are showing more caution. However, the data from Bitfinex shows the whales are not yet taking profits, potentially keeping BTC within its current range.
Based on market sentiment, retail traders are also more bearish compared to smart money and large-scale traders. However, whales remain cautious and are watching the market from the sides.
Retail takes the wheel on BTC
BTC consolidated around $14,980, abandoning its rally above $115,000. This time around, data points to small-scale orders and possible retail activity.
Based on the average size of futures orders, whales are no longer confident in placing large directional bets. Since the last dip to $109,000, the BTC market has been emptied of whale movers and big derivative bets.
BTC open interest is also permanently down since October 10, from around $44B to $35B. The recovery is slow, as traders are reluctant to take up new positions.
The recent range-bound activity with small orders suggests a period of market consolidation. The return of whale-sized orders, both spot and derivative, may signal another accumulation period with a rally in the making.
The current trading activity happens with a neutral sentiment, as the fear and greed index moved up to 50 points. Recently, the index dipped to 24 points, signaling extreme fear. The market showed it can recover in the short term, but rebuilding liquidity may take months following the largest liquidation in crypto’s history.
Whales distribute coins to smaller wallets
Some of the BTC activity may be hidden, as whales have shifted to smaller-size wallets.
Coins flowed out of wallets holding 1,000 to 10K BTC, which are too large and inconvenient at this price range.
More coins are flowing into shark wallets, holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. Shark wallets now hold 5.15M BTC, becoming one of the most actively growing categories.
Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.
