Bitcoin holders are sitting on average profits of 93% while network activity hits record highs, yet the cryptocurrency has stalled near $110,000 in what CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju calls an unusual consolidation rather than a typical bull market peak. The disconnect between strong fundamentals and sideways price action reflects profit-taking from early buyers meeting steady institutional inflows, creating a standoff that defies traditional cycle patterns.
What to Know:
- Bitcoin's realized capitalization jumped $8 billion in one week, but selling pressure from profitable holders has kept prices range-bound despite healthy demand inflows.
- Different investor cohorts show wildly divergent returns, with long-term whales up 155% while ETF buyers sit roughly at breakeven, removing both panic-selling risk and momentum-driving gains.
- Traditional four-year market cycles may no longer apply as institutional participation and diverse capital sources disrupt historical accumulation and distribution patterns.
Profitability Spread Reveals Market Divide
The average Bitcoin holder maintains gains near 93%, with wallet cost basis around $55,900. Realized capitalization surged roughly $8 billion over the past week, indicating robust on-chain capital movement.
Yet prices remain stuck. "Price hasn't gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak," Ju said in his analysis. The market is absorbing profit-taking while new capital enters, creating equilibrium instead of breakout momentum.
The profitability picture varies dramatically by holder type.
ETFs and custodial wallets carry a $112,000 cost basis, putting recent institutional entrants 1% underwater. Binance traders and miners both average $56,000 cost basis with 96% gains, while long-term whales sit on $43,000 cost basis reflecting 155% profits. This spread creates an unusual dynamic where recent buyers lack both the panic that triggers capitulation and the substantial gains that fuel additional momentum.
Ju noted that Bitcoin's valuation multiplier remains restrained.
About $1 trillion in on-chain inflows has generated $2 trillion in market capitalization, a gap he termed "moderate for now." This suggests the market hasn't entered the speculative excess preceding major corrections, but it also indicates an absence of euphoric buying that drives parabolic surges.
"Whales' unrealized profits aren't extreme," Ju said, pointing to two interpretations: either "hype hasn't arrived yet—we're still far from euphoric sentiment," or "this time is different—the market is too big for extreme profit ratios."
Leverage Dynamics and Institutional Flows
Bitcoin transfers from spot platforms to derivatives exchanges have declined sharply. Whales have pulled back from opening fresh leveraged positions using Bitcoin as collateral, reducing the mechanical buying pressure these positions typically create. Overall perpetual futures leverage remains elevated by historical standards, even after recent liquidations, creating choppy conditions without sustained directional moves.
Network fundamentals tell a different story. Bitcoin's hashrate recently hit new all-time highs with approximately 5.96 million ASICs now online. Public mining companies are expanding rather than cutting back, signaling confidence in long-term economics. However, growing mining capacity can create additional selling pressure as operators manage treasury needs and expenses, particularly when demand softens.
Current demand flows primarily through spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, both of which have recently slowed their purchasing activity.
Ju identified this as the critical variable. "If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns," he said.
The traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply. "Now it's harder to predict where and how much new liquidity will enter, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to follow the same cyclical pattern again," Ju explained. Institutional participation and diverse capital sources have potentially disrupted the predictable accumulation and distribution patterns between retail and large holders that defined earlier market periods.
Closing Thoughts
Ju's data points to a market marked by rising realized capitalization, profitable holder bases across groups, and record network security. Yet declining whale activity in collateralized positions and concentrated demand through institutional channels have stalled momentum despite solid fundamentals. Whether this represents a pause before additional gains or a structural shift toward less volatile price discovery remains unclear.
