As Bitcoin undergoes a short-term correction, a divided market outlook emerges. Some experts warn that a break below the psychological $100,000 level could trigger a further plunge to $56,000.
On the other hand, on-chain data analysts suggest the current downturn is a healthy adjustment.
McGlone Identifies $100K as Critical Support
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently asserted on a podcast that $100,000 represents a profoundly significant price support for Bitcoin. The collapse of the $100,000 would mark the end of Bitcoin’s six-figure price, a symbol long associated with high volatility.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 20% recently. Consequently, this is highly likely to impact market sentiment negatively. McGlone was harshly critical, stating that, aside from $300 billion in stablecoins tracking US Treasury values, there are no assets tracking anything substantial.
He continued, “People are going to realize, yeah, okay, track’s nothing, which is (going to) flush out 90% of it, and then we’ll get back to building a decent market.”
High Correlation Signals Broader Market Risk
The strategist warned that a collapse in value would likely not stop with the crypto market. He explained, “If the market continues to trickle down below a hundred thousand, those are dominoes potentially falling because it’s very highly correlated to the stock market.”
What’s Riding on Bitcoin Holding $100,000? Stocks. Source: X(Mike McGlone)
A chart he attached to a post on X showed the recent correlation between the US S&P 500 index and Bitcoin’s price reached 0.5332. This high level suggests a potential S&P 500 dip should Bitcoin suffer a fatal decline.
He noted, “Now it’s almost the same trade because a lot of that money has been coming from ETFs that pile on is coming from people who have traditionally been more involved in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.”
McGlone also gave weight to the possibility that Bitcoin’s price could drop to $56,000 in the worst-case scenario.
He noted that mean reversion is synonymous with humility in the markets. Indeed, his look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the first-born crypto to revert to its 48-month moving average, now around $56,000, after similarly extended rallies as in 2025.
On-Chain Data Suggests ‘Mild Bear Phase’
Conversely, on-chain data analysts offered a different perspective, arguing the current drop is distinct from historical “true crashes.” Glassnode, a cryptocurrency on-chain data platform, published a report on Wednesday. In this report, the platform noted that Bitcoin’s unrealized loss is currently significantly lower than during historical bear markets.
BTC: Relative Unrealized Loss. Source: Glassnode
They stated, “Unlike the 2022–2023 bear market, where losses reached extreme levels, the current reading of 3.1% suggests only moderate stress, comparable to mid-cycle corrections in Q3–Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, all of which remained below the 5% threshold.”
“As long as unrealized losses stay within this range, the market can be classified as a mild bear phase characterized by orderly revaluation rather than panic.”
However, Glassnode cautioned, “a deeper drawdown pushing this ratio above 10% would likely trigger broader capitulation and mark the transition into a more severe bearish regime.”
