The agreement between Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Senate to end the prolonged federal government shutdown could offer relief not only to the economy but also to cryptocurrency markets, which have faced regulatory stagnation during the closure.

The proposal passed a key procedural vote 60–40 and is expected to proceed to a final vote later this week before heading to the House for approval. They still need to vote to make it official, but the results will likely be positive, as both parties support the plan.

The U.S. Senate plans to end the shutdown

It’s now 40 days since the government shutdown, and citizens across the country are feeling the effects firsthand as public offices remain closed, federal workers haven’t been paid, and government services continue to be delayed. The shutdown has primarily affected financial markets, including cryptocurrency, as investors tend to dislike uncertainty.

Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made numerous attempts to meet with lawmakers from both parties, marking his 15th effort to resolve the issue.

However, there is a glimmer of hope because senators are working on a three-part budget plan that will keep the government open until the end of January. Lawmakers will vote in December to extend tax credits from the Affordable Care Act for one more year and prevent or reverse layoffs of federal workers that happened during the shutdown.

Senators received the final version of the budget bills before the weekend vote, allowing them more time to review the plan’s mission. And because the current situation is urgent, they have to return to Washington for a rare weekend session to vote on the plan. If all goes well, the Senate will proceed with the budget plan, and the government will finally open its doors after more than a month of shutdown.

The crypto market reacts as the uncertainty goes down, and policies become clearer

The price of Bitcoin increased rapidly and reached around $126,080 when the shutdown began, as investors saw an opportunity to buy while traditional markets remained uncertain about the future. However, as the shutdown lasted longer than expected, Bitcoin’s value fell by over 17% to approximately $104,370. 

This drop in Bitcoin occurred around the same time that President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, which unsettled global markets. Analysts say investors hesitated to buy, and institutions that planned to enter the crypto market stayed away because they were unsure how long the shutdown would last.

Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the current situation, as past government shutdowns have had a similar impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the shutdown between December 2018 and January 2019, the price of Bitcoin increased from roughly $3,550 to $13,000 over the next five months after the government reopened.

Prediction markets also expect the shutdown to end soon, as the probability that it will reopen between Tuesday and Friday increased from 27% to 54% on Polymarket. President Trump also announced that most Americans may receive a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenue to increase consumer spending and inject more money into the economy. 

Analysts will closely monitor the timing of the Senate vote, as the market could remain nervous and Bitcoin prices could fluctuate if lawmakers delay or contest the vote.

They will also study how other cryptocurrencies behave in the first 24 to 72 hours after the government officially reopens and monitor trading volumes, as they represent the confidence among traders.

Resolving the shutdown will restore confidence among traders and allow the cryptocurrency market to recover properly. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies might also increase in value when new institutional investors show interest. 

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