The crypto market may face a pivotal week as two major macro events converge — a potential US–India trade deal and a breakthrough in the US government shutdown negotiations.
Together, they could trigger a liquidity and sentiment shift powerful enough to lift Bitcoin and broader crypto prices.
Trade Deal Nearing Completion
On Monday, Donald Trump said the United States is “very close” to reaching a trade deal with India. The agreement reportedly includes tariff reductions on Indian exports and India’s commitment to curb Russian oil imports, according to recent Reuters and NDTV reports.
The deal, still unconfirmed, would reduce tariffs from roughly 50% to around 15–16%, benefiting both sides.
For Washington, it would bolster trade stability in Asia, while for India, it could support export growth ahead of the 2026 election cycle.
Markets are watching closely for formal confirmation, as the deal could ease global trade uncertainty and strengthen emerging-market currencies — both seen as positive signals for risk assets like Bitcoin.
US Shutdown Nears Resolution
Meanwhile, the US Senate has advanced a bipartisan funding bill that could reopen the government by mid-to-late November.
The proposal funds operations through January 2026 and includes worker back pay and a commitment to future healthcare subsidy votes.
The shutdown, now in its sixth week, has frozen over $850 billion in the Treasury General Account (TGA). This has drained roughly 8% of dollar liquidity from the financial system, tightening conditions across equities and crypto markets.
Once the government reopens, the Treasury is expected to spend down $250–350 billion within weeks. That spending would release liquidity back into circulation — the same cash that was previously locked up during the shutdown.
Why It Matters for Crypto
Crypto has traded like a liquidity barometer all year. Bitcoin fell about 5% since July, mirroring the liquidity contraction caused by Treasury hoarding.
Latest data show that large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) accumulated ~29,600 BTC ($3 billion) during the dip, positioning themselves ahead of a potential macro reversal.
If both the shutdown ends and the India trade deal is finalized this week, analysts expect a powerful twin effect:
Fiscal reactivation would inject liquidity back into markets.
Trade optimism could soften the dollar and boost risk appetite.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes describes this as “stealth QE” — liquidity expansion through government spending rather than traditional central bank action.
If both catalysts materialize, Bitcoin could regain its support above $110,000. Short-term volatility may persist, but the macro setup is turning constructive:
The dollar could weaken slightly as global trade stabilizes.
Real yields may fall, supporting alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold.
On-chain data shows long-term holders increasing exposure, not exiting.
Overall, this week could mark a turning point in macro-driven crypto sentiment.
If the US reopens fiscal spending and the US–India deal lifts risk appetite, liquidity will return to global markets.
