Bitcoin’s price surged after the US Senate passed a bill to reopen the government, but the rally quickly stalled near a critical resistance level at $108,000.
Analysts attribute the sluggish upward momentum to ongoing selling pressure from Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who have liquidated over 370,000 BTC since July.
Key Resistance Level Holds Strong
Bitcoin’s price spiked by $2,000 around 1:30 am UTC on Tuesday, reaching approximately $107,500 after the US Senate passed the government shutdown resolution. This marked the highest price level in a week, since November 4. However, the surge was unsustainable, lasting less than five minutes before the price retreated to the pre-spike level of $105,500 by 2:00 pm.
Analysts believe Bitcoin will face significant difficulty breaking the strong resistance zone near $108,000 in the near term. On-chain data platform Glassnode identified this technical hurdle: “The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.”
Risk Indicator: Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. Source: Glassnode
This 85th percentile cost basis previously acted as a strong support line during multiple price dips following the October 10 crash. However, after the price decisively broke below it in early November, the principle of technical analysis suggests the level has now flipped into a powerful resistance zone.
Long-Term Holders Maintaining ‘Peak Spending’
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed to persistent LTH selling as the primary obstacle to a sustained rally. “Long-term holders are currently at peak spending, having already sold 371,584 Bitcoin $BTC since July,” Martinez noted.
Bicoin: Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator. Source: Glassnode
The LTHs’ average acquisition price remains low at $37,915 (as of Nov 8). While LTH selling typically diminishes as the price nears its cost basis, the current price is well above that level, indicating the profit-taking incentive remains high.
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan confirmed the continuing LTH selling pressure, diagnosing the $107K–$118K range as a major resistance zone. The analyst noted LTH exchange inflows are “nearly double normal levels,” which “creates supply friction” against upward price movement.
Interestingly, the LTH-SOPR metric—which tracks long-term profit realization and often signals reduced selling pressure when it falls—has declined during this period. XWIN Research Japan interpreted this paradoxical situation not as a reduction in selling volume but as “reduced conviction among holders, selling into strength but with less profit margin” than previously seen.
