According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, Bitcoin has entered a “do-or-die” phase as traders watch a narrow price band for signs of direction. From an Oct. 6 level of $123,500, the coin tumbled almost 20% to a low of $99,900 on Nov. 4 before recovering to about $106,350. Reports show the move left Bitcoin roughly 14% below its earlier October peak.
Make Or Break Zone For Bitcoin
Based on trend lines and monthly charts, McGlone points to a rollover pattern after the months-long climb that culminated in an Oct. 6 high marked on some charts at $126,270. The immediate technical test is the 200-day moving average, which sits near $110,000.
According to his view, Bitcoin needs to push back above that level to make a clear case for renewed upside. If it can’t, the risk is that sellers regain control and prices slip further below the current band between $100,000 and $110,000.
Resistance And Momentum Signals
Reports have highlighted other warning signs. Long upper wicks have appeared on recent candles, a sign that buyers were checked near the top. The 12-month simple moving average has started to flatten after a steady climb, suggesting the buying drive is slowing.
Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe has pointed to strong resistance in the $108,000–$110,000 zone. According to him, breaking through that range could open the door back to the highs, and if that happens, altcoins may run harder than Bitcoin.
Institutional Moves And Market Mood
Institutional buyers remain active. Michael Saylor’s firm purchased 487 BTC worth close to $50 million today, bringing reported holdings to 641,692 BTC. At the same time, exchange-traded funds saw outflows totaling $1.22 billion last week.
Market sentiment has nudged up: CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 29 from 24, and Bitcoin is up about 3.6% in the past 24 hours after lawmakers advanced a US government shutdown deal.
Traders are pricing event-contract probabilities that place a 28% chance Bitcoin reaches $130,000 or higher this year and a 9% chance it tops $150,000.
Short-Term Triggers Could Tip The Scale
Near-term catalysts are in play. US President Donald Trump’s mention of a possible $2,000 tariff “dividend” and progress toward ending the shutdown appear to have helped the recent bounce.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said the market has cleaner positioning and could see a constructive November if fiscal clarity and ETF flows stabilize.
He also warned about risks: continued ETF outflows, delivery delays on fiscal measures, and rising market leverage could reverse the recovery.
What To Watch Next
For now, Bitcoin sits in a tight trading range. Reclaiming $110,000 would be read as a positive signal and might restore buying confidence. Falling below $100,000 would likely trigger deeper losses, according to the technical picture analysts cite.
Traders and institutions will watch price action around those levels closely — and those moves will shape whether this moment is remembered as a short pause or a major turning point.
Featured image from The Conversation/Landmark Media/Alamy, chart from TradingView
