Solana (SOL), one of the leading layer-1 blockchain assets, has seen its price drop as much as 40% during the current market correction. Every attempt at recovery has been met with renewed selling pressure, raising questions about whether a lasting rebound is on the horizon.
What to Know:
- Solana (SOL) has fallen roughly 40% in recent months amid repeated sell-offs and technical resistance.
- Analysts suggest institutional selling could be keeping prices low ahead of potential Solana spot ETF approvals.
- Despite short-term weakness, technical indicators and ETF inflows hint at a possible recovery.
Persistent Sell Pressure and ETF Speculation
Market watchers have noted a recurring pattern: just as SOL appears poised to break out, large transfers from Binance to the trading firm Wintermute occur, followed by sharp declines. Some observers speculate that this could be institutional positioning ahead of potential Solana spot ETF approvals, though such claims remain unverified.
The price of SOL continues to move within a descending channel that began forming in mid-September, according to TradingView data. It has fallen below multiple key supports, turning them into resistance, and now trades under a major ascending trendline that dates back to April.
Testing Key Supports and Building a Base
The current chart structure suggests that SOL could retest the $156 horizontal support, a level that has held repeatedly. Should that level break, the next significant support sits near $127 or at the channel’s lower boundary.
Still, there are signs of stabilization. Several candle wicks have dipped below $156 but quickly recovered, indicating strong buyer interest at that level. Traders view this as evidence that a base might be forming for a larger move upward.
To confirm a shift in momentum, bulls must defend the $156 zone and reclaim both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the major trendline overhead. The upper boundary of the descending channel also aligns with key resistance, making it a critical test for any future rally.
Weekly Outlook and Technical Indicators
In the weekly time frame, three notable developments stand out. First, two full candle bodies have now closed below the ascending trendline—a bearish sign. Second, the latest long red candle retested the bottom of the descending channel, reinforcing that level as firm structural support.
The third, and most optimistic indicator, comes from the Stochastic RSI, which has dropped to the bottom of its range. Historically, when these lines cross back upward from this position, SOL has seen strong rallies—the last one reaching roughly 167%. This technical setup suggests a meaningful recovery could be approaching.
Institutional Flows and Market Confidence
Recent ETF data adds weight to the bullish case. According to Farside Investors, Solana-based spot ETFs brought in $9.7 million in inflows over 24 hours. BitwiseInvest’s BSOL product led with $7.5 million, while Grayscale’s GSOL added $2.2 million. Combined, the two funds now manage about $294 million in assets.
This level of participation marks a milestone for Solana as the first major blockchain outside Bitcoin and Ethereum to achieve notable ETF traction in the United States.
Analysts note that rising inflows often coincide with stronger on-chain liquidity and reduced volatility.
Following the ETF momentum, SOL’s price bounced from around $150, mirroring renewed institutional buying activity visible on-chain. Analysts say this trend underscores Solana’s reputation as a credible base-layer alternative, with infrastructure capable of handling high transaction volumes and decentralized finance (DeFi) operations.
Closing Thoughts
Solana’s technical structure still shows weakness, but underlying support levels and growing institutional interest point to a potential rebound. If momentum returns alongside ETF demand, SOL could be positioned for a meaningful recovery in the coming weeks.
