Morgan Stanley strategists say Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle — a stage that signals investors should begin locking in profits ahead of a potential downturn.
In a recent episode of Crypto Goes Mainstream, Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, compared Bitcoin’s performance to the changing seasons. He argued that the asset tends to follow a predictable rhythm: three years of rising prices followed by one year of decline.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last — and when the next winter will start.”
Bitcoin is sitting at just over $101,000, source: BNC
A Seasonal Framework for Bitcoin
Galindo’s analogy reflects how major Wall Street firms are increasingly analyzing Bitcoin using cyclical frameworks once reserved for commodities and liquidity-driven macro markets. According to Morgan Stanley’s model, Bitcoin’s “winter” represents consolidation and downturns, while “spring” and “summer” capture the growth and euphoria phases.
Bitcoin’s latest dip below $99,000 has reinforced the narrative. The asset slipped under its 365-day moving average earlier this week — a level many analysts view as a bellwether for long-term sentiment. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, described the move as a “strong bearish signal,” and analysts at Bitrue called it the official start of a technical bear market.
Liquidity Growth Slows
Adding to the cautious outlook, crypto market-maker Wintermute reported that key liquidity drivers are showing signs of fatigue. In a recent blog post, the firm noted that inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries (DATs) have plateaued after a strong start to the year — potentially stalling the momentum that fueled Bitcoin’s 2024 rally.
Institutions Still Accumulating
Not everyone at Morgan Stanley is bracing for a freeze. Michael Cyprys, the bank’s head of U.S. brokers, asset managers and exchanges research, noted that despite short-term volatility, institutional adoption continues to rise.
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement,” Cyprys said on the podcast. “ETFs have made that exposure easier — but even that’s been a debate in the marketplace.”
He added that large institutional allocations tend to move slowly due to governance and risk-management processes, meaning that participation can continue building even during market pullbacks.
ETF Inflows Remain Strong
Data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $137 billion in total assets under management, while spot Ether ETFs have accumulated around $22.4 billion. Analysts say that level of institutional exposure could help cushion the market from deeper corrections — even if Bitcoin enters its cyclical “winter.”
Morgan Stanley’s “fall season” warning may not signal an immediate crash, but it underscores a growing sense of caution among institutional strategists. After a multi-year rally, traders face a familiar dilemma: take profits now, or risk being caught in the cold.
