The first US spot XRP exchange-traded fund begins trading Thursday on the Nasdaq Global Market, marking a watershed moment for institutional crypto adoption—though the debut arrives amid conflicting signals from on-chain data that suggest intense short-term volatility ahead.
Nasdaq officially certified the listing of Canary Capital's XRP ETF under ticker XRPC on November 12 at 5:30 PM ET, clearing the final regulatory hurdle for Thursday's market open. The launch represents Ripple's long-sought validation as a mainstream financial asset, offering investors regulated exposure to the cross-border payment token without managing private keys.
The ETF is registered under the Securities Act of 1933, following the same framework used for recently launched spot ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. The fund carries a 0.50% annual management fee, with custody provided by Gemini Trust Company and BitGo Trust Company.
The regulatory pathway became possible after the SEC and Ripple wrapped up their legal case in August 2025, dismissing appeals and finalizing penalties. Courts had drawn a critical distinction between institutional XRP sales - found to be unregistered securities offerings - and secondary-market XRP trading, which was deemed not to constitute securities transactions.
Senate Bill Proposes Commodity Classification
The ETF launch coincides with potentially transformative legislative developments. A bipartisan discussion draft released November 10 by US Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman and Senator Cory Booker proposes formally classifying XRP and other major cryptocurrencies as commodities under CFTC oversight.
The proposal would grant the CFTC new authority to regulate digital commodity spot markets, establishing a clear regulatory framework separate from SEC jurisdiction. If enacted, this legislation would codify the legal clarity Ripple gained from its court victory and potentially accelerate institutional adoption.
The draft calls for regulated entities to pay fees to the CFTC for registering digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers, while establishing requirements for crypto exchanges to permit trading only of assets "not readily susceptible to manipulation".
Whale Activity Raises Red Flags
Despite the regulatory tailwinds, on-chain data reveals concerning patterns in whale behavior that could dampen the ETF's initial impact. According to CryptoQuant analysis, XRP's Whale to Exchange Flow metric for Binance shows a clear distribution phase, with large holders moving substantial assets onto the exchange - typically a signal of preparation to sell at higher prices.
Data shows whales have transferred 2.66 billion XRP to Binance over the past 30 days, the largest movement since April 2024. This represents approximately $6.5 billion worth of XRP at current prices, creating significant potential selling pressure.
The timing is particularly notable given XRP's recent price surge. Additionally, dormant supply - XRP that remained inactive for at least a year - has awakened to its highest level since July, suggesting long-term holders are choosing to exit positions rather than ride out further volatility.
Mixed Signals from Exchange Flows
Exchange netflow data paints a nuanced picture. While XRP's total exchange reserves declined by 140 million tokens as of November 11, signaling some holders are moving assets off exchanges for long-term storage, the overall pattern shows increased deposit activity on major platforms.
Large XRP transactions to Binance surged from 631 to 1,683 between late April and early May, with similar spikes observed in the lead-up to Thursday's ETF debut. Historically, such surges have preceded significant price corrections, according to CCN analysis of CryptoQuant data.
Price Action and Technical Outlook
XRP traded near $2.50 on November 13, with most technical analysts identifying key resistance zones at $2.60–$2.70. The token remains approximately 31% below its July 2025 high of $3.65, though it still boasts impressive 278% yearly gains.
For the near term, analysts expect XRP to trade within a range between $2.30 and $2.70 as the market digests the ETF launch and broader crypto sentiment. A sustained break above $2.70 could signal renewed institutional demand, potentially opening the door toward the $3.00–$3.20 zone.
Institutional Pipeline Building
The Canary ETF represents just the opening salvo in institutional XRP adoption. Additional XRP ETFs from 21Shares, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and CoinShares have all amended their registration forms with the SEC, suggesting multiple competing products could launch within weeks.
As of November 13, there are eleven XRP ETF products listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation website, indicating substantial Wall Street interest in gaining regulated exposure to Ripple's native token.
New Investor Activity Surges
Not all on-chain signals are bearish. The XRP Ledger showed 21,595 new wallets created on November 5 and 6—the strongest growth in eight months, according to Santiment data. This retail interest surge suggests fresh capital entering the market just as institutional access expands.
On November 10, XRP jumped over 12% to reach $2.55 as on-chain data revealed more than $550 million in whale accumulation within just a few days, indicating some large holders view current levels as attractive entry points despite the broader selling pressure.
Critical First Session
Market analysts emphasize that Thursday's opening session will prove decisive in determining whether ETF demand can absorb whale distribution or whether long-term holders will use the liquidity event as an exit opportunity.
The setup mirrors classic institutional product launches in crypto, where initial trading sessions often experience heightened volatility as competing forces—new institutional buyers versus existing large holders seeking liquidity - battle for control of price direction.
With regulatory clarity improving, institutional infrastructure in place, and retail interest surging, XRP stands at a critical inflection point. Whether the ETF launch catalyzes a sustained rally or triggers profit-taking will likely depend on the balance between fresh capital inflows and the substantial overhang of tokens that have moved to exchanges in recent weeks.
The coming days will reveal whether XRP can replicate the post-ETF rallies seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum, or whether the token remains range-bound as whales methodically distribute holdings into institutional demand.
