Data compiled by CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) selling hit the highest level this year. Bitcoin LTHs have sold roughly 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the highest level since January 2024.
CryptoQuant claims that this mass selloff by BTC long-term holders has come at a time when spot demand for Bitcoin declined. Net outflows from BTC ETFs also confirmed this decline in demand, according to the crypto analytics platform.
However, demand was strong enough to absorb the supply at higher prices in previous periods of high LTH selling. CryptoQuant observes that this is not the case now. Meanwhile, Bitcoin holders continue to sell to take profit while realizing relatively low losses.
Bitcoin holders realize profits of $3B
The CryptoQuant report revealed that Bitcoin long-term holders realized profits of about $3 billion on November 7, a relatively higher level similar to October profits. The crypto analytics platform believes this is an indication that selling pressure could remain high.
Meanwhile, net realized losses have practically been non-existent, indicating that holders have not catapulted. CryptoQuant thinks this is a necessary condition for a price bottom to form.
The analysis also found that Bitcoin prices have continued to hover up and down its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a crucial technical and psychological support level. CryptoQuant says the 356-day moving average has acted as the ultimate support level for Bitcoin so far in this bull cycle. It was one of the last signals to be triggered as the bear market kicked off in December 2021-January 2022, according to the report. Failure to recapture the 365-day MA could accelerate a deeper correction.
The report noted that the overall Bitcoin market remains extremely bearish as the price drops towards the $100,000 mark. Three factors contributed to this shift in sentiment, according to CryptoQuant.
First, BTC price lost momentum following the October 10 crash that turned momentum metrics bearish. Secondly, spot demand entered contraction on October 8, though it has since rebounded. Third, stablecoin liquidity growth slowed, failing to keep up its previous trend.
Red October tests investor confidence
The wave of profit-taking among long-term Bitcoin holders reportedly comes as Red October tested investor conviction and dampened demand across the industry. Data retrieved from CryptoQuant shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 405,000 BTC in October, equivalent to a realized value of $43 billion.
The latest whale activity has exemplified the trend. CryptoQuant identified an address: 195DJ that offloaded 13,004 BTC in October. Roughly 1,200 BTC worth ~$132 million was also sent to Kraken over the last week of October. The crypto analytics platform noted that large holders were increasingly moving their BTC loot to exchanges, piling more selling pressure on the market.
Meanwhile, institutional demand for Bitcoin has plummeted sharply even as long-term Bitcoin holders continue to transfer the stash to exchanges. Net institutional BTC purchases have also fallen below the daily mining supply for the first time in seven months.
However, not all investors view this wave of selling as a bearish signal. CryptoQuant claims that some see it as a strategic redistribution typical of a bull market cycle. It noted that LTHs are moving coins into the hands of institutional investors and traditional finance, many of whom represent retail clients.
However, Erik Voorhees, the founder of crypto exchange ShapeShift, believes the focus is not on short-term gains but on BTC achieving true monetary dominance and adoption. Earlier this week, a Satoshi-era whale sold all of its Bitcoin valued at $1.5 billion, after holding the coins for nearly 15 years.
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